Monday, November 29, 2010

European FX Midday recap

13:48CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and causing most of the market moves this morning.

    * German FinMin Schaeuble: Programme for Ireland is appropriate
    * German FinMin Schaeuble: Expects a new Irish govt would also feel obliged to accept deal. Not all details on Ireland package.
    * Roubini: Portugal likely to need bailout
    * Introducing the European Stability Mechanism  -  ft.com/aplphaville
    * Germany faces its awful choice as Spain wobbles – AEP in The Telegraph
    * UK October mortgage approvals 47,185, in line with median forecast of 47,000
    * Euro zone November business climate 0.96, weaker than median forecast of 1.05

Technically speaking, the advance of the USD has put the unit again very much stretched vs the EUR, where we see extreme OS levels in 15m charts being tested non-stop, and that is not a healthy sign for the greenback. Of course, the crowd is now selling all EUR crosses as they were selling all USD pairs shortly ago, so no surprise from the crowd mentality point of view. However, I disagree that current EUR weakness is to last at this ratio of speed. Buying EUR/USD @ 1.3145 with 1.3120 stop and 1.3210 target looks good to me.

Posted via email from MT4

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