Thursday, November 18, 2010

European FX Midday recap

14:11CET

These are the topics that have had an impact on the markets thus far in the European session:

    * Irish central bank governor:  Expects loan from Europe, IMF  (not a bail-out mind) will be large. Will run into 10’s of billions €.
    * Irish govt minister: Expects 4 year fiscal plan to be published around middle of next week
    * Spain PM: Highly probable to meet 2010 growth targets
    * UK October retail sales +0.5%, slightly better than median forecast of +0.4%
    * UK PSNCR 2.431 bln, lower than median forecast of 6.0 bln, PSNB 9.77 bln, higher than median forecast of 9.0 bln
    * UK CBI November manufacturing order book balance -15 vs -28 in October, better than median forecast of -24
    * Swiss ZEW investor sentiment -30.9 in November, deterioration from -27.5 in October
    * Germany’s Merkel: Euro is vital to German interests
    * South Korea to reintroduce withholding tax on foreigners bond investment – FinMin official
    * BOJ considers increasing capital to prepare for asset purchasing – Kyodo (report doesn’t mention amount/timing)
    * Japanese govt maintains overall economic assessment, says economy at a standstill
    * Japan EconMin Kaieda: Can’t say that yen has weakened enough recently
    * Nikkei 225 will surge in cycle convergence – Bloomberg
    * France’s Lagarde: Euro zone is not at risk of breaking up
    * China may hike rates another 100 bps (not all in one go mind) Interesting video

Technically speaking, EUR/USD has tripped above many stops in the 1.3600-20 area, Cable has done so in the 1.5975-90 area and USD/CHF has broken important intraday support line @ 0.9870, which has put a lot of pressure to the USD. The picture has not been (totally) followed by AUD/USD, as the unit, quite correlated to Gold, has seen that unit stalling at key dynamic resistance $1,357-8. All in all, retail traders still remain too much long in USD despite the recent sell-offs across the board, and that may not be helpful at all in an otherwise usually (like Tuesday) USD-selling day.

Posted via email from MT4

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