At the Close. Big volatility to end the month....and more to come.

18:19CET

Well, it's all about selling the EUR to the catacombs these days and today it was no exception. The only difference was that, instead of direct EUR/USD selling, we had EUR selling through the crosses, and particularly (and this is definitely not technically welcome), through a huge EUR/CHF sell-off, from 1.3130 to 1.2930 in just a session, reminding us that this once so-called lethargic pair is the king of volatility at present and a driving force in the markets.

Nothing big to add from the technical point of view, I would repeat the extreme OS status of the single currency, but then you would label me as a broken record and I would not like that. Interesting to see whether the USD/JPY sell-off is a one-day event or a more sustained situation, but anyway in the mid 83's I think it's pretty good to buy the pair. Also, keep a big eye on USD/CHF, as the unit pretends to regain parity, and a move above 1.0020 would mean the break of the short-term resistance line off the recent highs.

Before calling it a day, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves in the market, I still am amazed at EUR and GBP ratios (USD/CHF and USD/JPY are an X-file these weeks, too). I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my bit of space on the internet, supported and presented by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 30, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.38% 23.62%
   2. XAU/USD
      68.95% 31.05%
   3. USD/CHF
      67.30% 32.70%
   4. USD/CAD
      57.24% 42.76%
   5. AUD/USD
      51.79% 48.21%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.02% 51.98%
   7. GBP/USD
      47.64% 52.36%

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Vivian Lewis Says It?s All About the Dollar

14:51CET

The Renaissance woman of the international investment newsletter scene gives a wide ranging interview on Hedge Fund Radio. Bullish on the US dollar, despite the vast majority of traders happily positioning for the decline and fall of Uncle Buck. It’s simply a matter of betting on the simultaneous strengthening of the US economy and a slowdown in Europe. Cautious on Brazil, but Chile, Poland, Thailand, and India look hot. The Yuan can only go up. Searching for value in Greece. (EWZ) (UUP), (EUO), (PT), (EWZ), (TF), (PLND), (ECH), (PIN), (FXI), (GIFD), (PCY),

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/vivian-lewis-says-it%E2%80%99s-all-about-dollar

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Bundesbank planning on a world without the euro?

14:27CET

Things are getting out of hand in the Euro-Zone...We heard rumors like this back in the spring as well…

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10933330/1/germany-is-smart-to-plan-for-death-of-euro.html

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European FX Midday recap

13:28CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and causing some kind of market action:

    * China says “extremely important and urgent” to encourage talks on Korean situation
    * China state councillor Dai Bingguo to visit North Korea – Kyodo
    * Rumour: German Landesbanks having problems with access to liquidity
    * Rumour: France to be put on negative watch by S&P
    * Rumour: US bank has put out note saying “Portugal is insolvent”
    * French Budget Minister Barion: No risk of France credit rating being downgraded
    * ECB buys 5 year Irish bonds (and probably other pheriphery bonds)
    * Spain’s EconMin Campa: Elevated financing cost will be worrying if it lasts
    * Spain banks face funding hurdle amid bailout threat – Bloomberg

Technically speaking, the EUR continues to be smashed across the board, and has a new front of battling: the JPY-CHF connection. The unit is getting very oversold (OS) vs the USD in almost all timeframes, and likewise vs the CHF, the situation is getting unsustainable with the so-called single currency. But even funnier is the long/short positioning by retail traders, who must again be making huge loads of money as it keeps being NET SHORT in EUR/USD.................unbelievable.

Nov 30, 2010 13:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.04% 23.96%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.23% 30.77%
   3. USD/CHF
      66.58% 33.42%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.42% 37.58%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.22% 49.78%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.79% 52.21%
   7. GBP/USD
      45.70% 54.30%

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Extreme levels for the day

11:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3243 - extreme OS 1.2947 - we are not far from it
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5656 - extreme OS 1.5440
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.702 - extreme OS 83.625
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0089 - extreme OS 0.9904
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9733 - extreme OS 0.9490

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Economic Data for Today

09:30CET

11:00 - EUR - Unemployment rate **
14:30 - CAD - GDP ****
15:45 - USD - Chicago PMI **
16:00 - USD - Consumer Confidence ***
16:30 - EUR - ECB President speaks ***
21:00 - USD - Fed Chairman speaks ***
01:30 - AUD - GDP ****

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market reaction will be, 1* lowest volatility.

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At the Open. CHF may be the bigger threat to EUR and USD.

09:26CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. In other market circumstances, I'd start by reminding you that Tuesdays are usually USD-selling (mild or aggressive) days, but I find it prudent, and more taking into account what happened last Tuesday, not to do so. However, the main topic so far this morning isn't the EUR or USD: it's the CHF. The unit, who as I repeatedly said was forming many negative divergences in USD/CHF, has finally obliged and is pushing all pairs lower, dictating the market pace, and making the other crosses look rather irrelevant at this point. Well, I'm starting to hear and read that it is because of the fragile situation of the stock markets and bla bla bla, but the true fact is that charts where pointing to a lower USD/CHF, and that's what we have now. Whether this CHF brake on the USD advance will have any further impact on other USD crosses is something I don't know for sure yet.

On the other fronts, the day starts more or less where we left it, but I'm sure that there will be some more action from here, which I will try to describe in real time through twitter and ctainvestor. EUR/USD is threatening the 1.31 mark again as the single currency keeps being pressured on all fronts at the moment, although technically speaking is forming some kind of a possible support pattern, we'll see. THe JPY is also higher this morning, as a result of the CHF strength, but also as a result of the many resistances found around 84.20-50, which, if not broken, may send all the crosses way lower. We have EUR/JPY below 110 as I write this opening post, a bit surprising technically, to be honest.

Finishing this opening post with the retail long/short ratio for your review. As you see, it's just amazing to see EUR/USD longs below parity, something I still don't get...

Nov 30, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.26% 23.74%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.57% 30.43%
   3. USD/CHF
      67.29% 32.71%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.57% 37.43%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.76% 49.24%
   6. EUR/USD
      49.27% 50.73%
   7. GBP/USD
      45.78% 54.22%

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At the Close. Capitulation (part II and no comment...).

17:52CET

A very disappointing start of the week, from a technical point of view. It has become a very rare case now that 2 out of the last 3 trading days have seen a currency capitulation in just one direction. In the current almost historical case (when analyzed from the point of view of my extreme OB/OS readings), we have seen a new wave of very aggressive EUR/USD selling, which, in the other hand, has not led to a big raise of longs by retail traders, which I simply cannot believe, as it means most of them are making tons of money under these conditions, and I simply refuse to accept that.

The trip towards the 50% Fibo of the big 1.18-1.42 move (1.3080) may be considered by some of you as a technical move, but the speed with which the event has taken place is by no means technical or rational. The Euro accumulates aberration levels or technical failures from the low 1.32's now, and it's easy to see that the market is taking little care to correct that, at least for the time being. I would anyway be wary of new shorts, although most of the sites are calling for a EUR/USD destruction, and perhaps it will be them having the last laugh this time, I don't know.

The technical ideas suggested today worked nothing as the market dictated a different rule today, i.e, it abandoned any technical rationality to become a one-way traffic jam, making it easy for the mass media to play their snake charmer's role they long to do when something smells of a crisis or similar. Anyway I refuse to accept that these snake charmers will succeed in making of the market a non-technical environment from now on...

Before calling it a day, find below the long/short retail ratio, and you probably will shake your heads as much I do as there is something wrong there. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my site on the web, sponsored by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 29, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.89% 24.11%
   2. USD/CHF
      69.97% 30.03%
   3. XAU/USD
      68.89% 31.11%
   4. USD/CAD
      59.14% 40.86%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.93% 47.07%
   6. EUR/USD
      51.52% 48.48%
   7. GBP/USD
      46.65% 53.35%

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EUR/USD second capitulation in three days

... As unit does not move from extreme OS levels intraday and threatens to break the 1.31 mark.

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The nature of the euro has fundamentally changed

14:23CET

Interesting text by Jamie Coleman @ ForexLive.com, which is copied in full below.

In the early days of the sovereign debt crisis, the thinking was that bailouts, if necessary, would be punitive to keep other nations from following suit.

Now, bailouts have become  institutionalized, part of the European landscape. Terms are longer and easier to manage. Pretty soon, there will be no stigma to being bailed out by the EU and IMF at all. What stigma will there be to being the fourth bailout recipient, especially if you can spread the pain of repayment over ten years (or more, quite likely,  if that becomes too onerous…)

Whatever hope the market may have had of the euro being a deutsche mark substitute was shattered over the weekend when Europe put in place a permanent bailout mechanism, rescheduled the Greek bailout package and added Ireland to the dole.

The euro will continue to exist but it will not be considered hard money in the future. It is instead every German’s nightmare…

RIP the Germanic Euro: 1999-2010.

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European FX Midday recap

13:48CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and causing most of the market moves this morning.

    * German FinMin Schaeuble: Programme for Ireland is appropriate
    * German FinMin Schaeuble: Expects a new Irish govt would also feel obliged to accept deal. Not all details on Ireland package.
    * Roubini: Portugal likely to need bailout
    * Introducing the European Stability Mechanism  -  ft.com/aplphaville
    * Germany faces its awful choice as Spain wobbles – AEP in The Telegraph
    * UK October mortgage approvals 47,185, in line with median forecast of 47,000
    * Euro zone November business climate 0.96, weaker than median forecast of 1.05

Technically speaking, the advance of the USD has put the unit again very much stretched vs the EUR, where we see extreme OS levels in 15m charts being tested non-stop, and that is not a healthy sign for the greenback. Of course, the crowd is now selling all EUR crosses as they were selling all USD pairs shortly ago, so no surprise from the crowd mentality point of view. However, I disagree that current EUR weakness is to last at this ratio of speed. Buying EUR/USD @ 1.3145 with 1.3120 stop and 1.3210 target looks good to me.

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TRADE IDEA: BUY EUR/USD here @ market 1.3185, stop 1.3155, target 1.3245

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Investors-Europe.com Weekly Newsletter

10:44CET

As usual on Mondays, you can see my in-depth FX and World markets analysis and mid-term scenario predictions on Investors Europe. Follow the link below to access it:

http://www.investors-europe.com/content/analysis/74/index.html

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Did you know...?

10:20CET

The popularity of the VIX index, which has become a widely watched barometer of investor fear since the financial crisis, is generating a host of spinoffs, copycats and derivatives. It's adding up to big business for VIX's owner, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, as well as partners and competitors that have developed products pegged to, or inspired by, the VIX.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/fear-gauges-are-big-business/story-e6frg90x-1225962587199

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Extreme levels for the day

10:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3374 - extreme OS 1.3111
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5714 - extreme OS 1.5495
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.527 - extreme OS 83.565
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0085 - extreme OS 0.9944
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9761 - extreme OS 0.9532

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A different view on Ireland

10:04CET

Interesting piece on the Irish crisis:

The alternative title for today entry is: Ireland, please drive a stake through the heart of the vampire banks which have the world by the throat. The entire controlled demolition of the Eurozone's finances can be summed up in one phrase: privatize leverage and profits, socialize losses and risk. The basic deal is this: protect the bank's managers, shareholders and bondholders from any losses, while heaping the socialized losses and risks on the taxpayers and citizens. While there are murmurings of "forcing bondholders to share the pain," any future haircut will undoubtedly be just for show, while the Irish pension funds are gutted to bail out the banks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-ireland-please-do-world-favor-and-default

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DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

09:45CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3350 1.3410 1.3260
EURUSD BUY 1.3180 1.3140 1.3250
GBP/USD SELL 1.5650 1.5710 1.5470
GBP/USD BUY 1.5570 1.5510 1.5650
USD/JPY BUY 83.60 82.90 84.30
USD/JPY SELL 84.20 85.00 82.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9950 0.9920 1.0030
USD/CHF SELL 1.0025 1.0075 0.9930

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Economic Data for Today

09:45CET

10:30 - GBP - Net Lending to Individuals **
16:30 - GBP - Government Autumn Statement **
01:01 - GBP - Gfk Consumer Confidence **

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on my expected market reaction to it, 1* lowest volatility.

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At the Open. Reversal in place?

09:25CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The end of the week brought fast and furious gains for the USD, who threatened to break major lines vs the majors, for example, 1.0050 vs CHF, 1.3185-90 vs EUR and 1.5585 vs GBP. Today we had a repetition of such threats as the Dollar progressed even beyond those limits in a very volatile overnight session, but those gains quickly evaporated as technicals ruled and so now we have an easier situation for the majors from a technical point of view, although some of them still not out of the woods yet. Important to highlight the fact that AUD hit sub-0.96 levels, printing our mid-term target rather fast, just to see things reversing in line with the other majors.

I do feel we've seen quite a lot of improvement by the USD, but the speed with which this has taken place suggests we are in need of a pause, and although Mondays are not traditionally the days where the USD sees losses, the initial comeback by the majors suggests that we may be in for a price reversal, or at least no more USD gains for the time being. Selling USD rallies is the preferred strategy for today.

Before concluding this opening post, here's the long/short % positioning by retail traders at retail brokerages at this hour.

Nov 29, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.49% 25.51%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.94% 30.06%
   3. USD/CHF
      69.57% 30.43%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.14% 38.86%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.24% 47.76%
   6. EUR/USD
      51.38% 48.62%
   7. GBP/USD
      47.81% 52.19%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close.Thanksgiving sleep.

17:55CET

A non-market today that served the EUR to gain vs the USD close to 1.34, profiting from non-existent volatility and even so less liquidity. The unit looks now better than yesterday, but selling strength into the 1.34's looks like a good strategy to me. USD/CHF ran above 1.0 again, but the bearish technical signals paid off and our short strategy for the day paid decent pips despite the tight ranges. Very little less that I can add at this point, as I have no real interest in GBP or AUD at these levels, and USD/JPY is above a magnet line when it should be below, so nothing interesting happening there as well. A point to note, EUR/JPY is trading @ 111.80 after the capitulation 2 days ago, and I feel we will see the 112 mark soon again.

Before calling it a day, please find below the long/short retail ratio @ brokerages. Note that EUR longs keep increasing, which should put more pressure on the unit rather soon again. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my blog, sponsored by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 25, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.10% 25.90%
   2. XAU/USD
      71.28% 28.72%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.90% 31.10%
   4. USD/CAD
      66.70% 33.30%
   5. EUR/USD
      53.01% 46.99%
   6. AUD/USD
      49.75% 50.25%
   7. GBP/USD
      47.56% 52.44%

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Why Thick Mick From Ireland is a thing of the past

http://read.bi/thickmick

 

......

 

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TRADE IDEA: SELL USD/CHF @ market 1.0010, stop 1.0030, target 0.9975

Sent via Twitter.com/ctainvestor ... Open an account with www.investors-europe.com and benefit from CTAinvestor.com tips right away!

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Thought-Provoking video

09:20CET

Interesting video to watch on the successive effects of QE in the US.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-dollar-died

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At the Open. The gold direction.

09:10CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The US Thanksgiving break usually reduces volumes and makes trading ranges rather tight; however, and particularly in the FX case, since it is London the place that dominates volumes, it has not proven to be so. After the EUR capitulation of two days ago, things seem to have eased down at first. There is one instrument though that can set the pace for the next USD move: Gold.

The unit is forming a very clear H&S pattern, and the latest dip sub $1,370 puts it back below the key support line it has been trying to regain for the last 4-6 trading days. The neckline of this move is found around $1,325-15, and a clear break of the level exposes a fast selloff towards $1,250 at least, which would make things look rather bright for the USD.

In the currency front, very little to add, except that AUD/USD, given its recent strength, is the best vehicle for going long USD at the moment, with the 0.96 target discussed earlier in this blog still valid.

To conclude this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Note that all 3 majors EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are now in majority of LONGS, which makes USD progress far more easy than before, hope the USD/CHF will turn the tide as well soon.

Nov 25, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      73.04% 26.96%
   2. XAU/USD
      71.14% 28.86%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.38% 31.62%
   4. USD/CAD
      66.86% 33.14%
   5. EUR/USD
      53.50% 46.50%
   6. AUD/USD
      50.27% 49.73%
   7. GBP/USD
      50.24% 49.76%

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The irony of long-term chart reading

18:34CET

I was just going through the long-term charts, i.e, weeklies, and just realized USD/JPY confirmed a bullish singal at the close of last week @ 83.50....ironic, isn't it? Today's capitulation by the JPY crosses, and particularly EUR/JPY was not on cards surely on those longer-term chart readings...anyway, this is the FX market.

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The End Of The Dollar Carry Trade? Presenting The Dollar Short Panic In A Burning Theater

17:57CET

Very interesting piece in ZeroHedge.com

After it became fashionable to say one was short the dollar at cocktail parties, the net result was a surge in CFTC-reported spec USD gross short positions and a plunge in net USD exposure. And since options traders are nothing but momentum chasing lemmings the theater is now fully on fire. Granted, while some of the recent spike in short interest has been covered, there are still just over a whopping 7.5k contract shorts that need to be covered before a reversion to the recent trendline. This is why we are currently seeing a massive unwind in the dollar short carry trade, and why once again rumors that macro funds are slowly and quietly receiving billions in margin calls behind the scenes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/end-dollar-carry-trade-presenting-dollar-short-panic-burning-theater

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TRADE IDEA: BUY EUR/JPY here @ extreme OS level 112.65 15m chart, stop 112.35, target 113.10

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European FX Midday recap

12:50CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and that have had some impact in the financial and FX markets thus far this European morning:

    * Artillery shells fired by North Korea hit South Korean island, fatalities
    * S.Korea says it was conducting military drill in area before North Korea firing.  Says conducted test firing before exchange at island.
    * German FinMin Schaeble: Joint currency is at stake
    * Euro zone  manufacturing PMI 55.5, stronger than median forecast of 54.4
    * EU, ECB, IMF: Greece agreed new measures to broaden tax base, cut health sector and state firm waste
    * IMFmission chief for Greece: Athens broadly on track on fiscal plan
    * Greece’s main labour union calls for pan-european anti-austerity strike in 2011 – Union spokesman
    * Portugal opposition lawmaker says to allow passage of 2011 budget
    * German Q3 GDP (final) +0.7% q/q, +3.9% y/y, as expected
    * Irish c.bank governor: Not certain all of bailout package will be drawn down. There will a lot of conditions attached to the bailout
    * Bank of Spain’s Ordonez: Economy will take time to create jobs, recovery will be soft
    * Bank of Spain’s Ordonez: Spain’s deficit cutting plans more serious than some other countries
    * Italy November consumer confidence 108.5, stronger than median forecast of 107.5
    * French November manufacturing industry business morale 100, weaker than median forecast of 102
    * UK October mortgage approvals for home purchase 30,766, down from 31,058 in September, lowest since March 2009
    * ECB’s Tumpel-Gugerell: Money market conditions in euro zone are improving

Technically speaking, EUR is under heavy pressure as it can't even regain the 1,3585-90 level, a thing that also is confirmed by the failure by Gold to breach back above the dynamic resistance line @ $1,365, which is putting a real cap on AUD/USD. I favor selling this unit @ 0.9825-30 (we've been there 2-3 times today), targeting 0.9780 at least for today and stop above 0.9875. So far this is not a usual Tuesday.

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DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

11:15CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3620 1.3650 1.3520
EURUSD BUY 1.3520 1.3490 1.3580
GBP/USD SELL 1.5970 1.6030 1.5870
USD/JPY BUY 83.10 82.40 83.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9870 0.9830 0.9970
USD/CHF SELL 0.9925 0.9965 0.9870

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How Germany could come to kill the euro

11:12 CET

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85b62490-f66e-11df-846a-00144feab49a.html#axzz165QI9Cmg

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Extreme levels for the day

10:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3730 - extreme OS 1.3464
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6048 - extreme OS 1.5829
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.877 - extreme OS 82.935
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9977 - extreme OS 0.9812
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9967 - extreme OS 0.9741

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Economic Data for Today

09:23CET

09:30 - EUR - German Services and Manufacturing PMI **
10:30 - GBP - BBA Mortgage approvals ***
13:00 - EUR - GFK Consumer Climate ***
15:30 - GBP - BoE's MPC member speaks ***
16:00 - USD - Existing Home Sales ***
20:00 - USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes ****

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market will do with it, 1* lowest volatility.

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At the Open. Usual Tuesday ahead? Not likely...

09:15CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Heavy losses for AUD and EUR at the start of the day, particularly at a time when one would've least expected them to happen, i.e, at a time when Gold is again up for the day (although it has not broken the dynamic resistance line @ $1,365, from where I recommend shorts), and GBP is not 'falling' that much. The USD remains the favorite currency these days, and we've even seen new short-term highs in USD/JPY, as the unit printed 83.70 overnight. The EUR/CHF crash has put some brakes to the general USD/CHF advance, but overall the picture looks quite clear for the greenback.

On dailies, the reversal pattern seen yesterday in EUR/USD is not only targeting 1.3435 again, it is leading us to believe that the 61.8% of the last upleg, situated @ 1.3260, might just print sooner rather than later, and that's a fact. We have the unit with some positive divergences at this hour and it is Tuesday, so in other occasions I would've just issued a buy recommendation; not this time. Blame it on Ireland (that's the new game now...) or whatever you want, but even on a clear long call like the one I'm seeing on the screens at the moment I will not go with it, and rather sell rallies....even on a Tuesday.

Before closing this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour on brokerages. Long/Short ratio provided below. As you can see, short AUD/USD is the best thing to do for now, and the 0.96 target remains in place.

Nov 23, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.21% 24.79%
   2. XAU/USD
      74.12% 25.88%
   3. USD/CHF
      70.91% 29.09%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.54% 38.46%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.30% 47.70%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.17% 52.83%
   7. GBP/USD
      43.21% 56.79%

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At the Close. Violent USD reaction....fishy.

18:05CET

Well, it turned out to be more than just a classic Monday, with the USD making very strong gains vs the EUR, pushing it beyond extreme OS territory in 15m charts, and hitting OS territory in 1hr chart, in what I call it a 'too much, too fast' move, which does not leave a good taste as I write this closing post.

That, coupled with the fact that the Aussie and Cable are still holding respective support lines (short-term), makes the EUR move a rather unique situation, which can be attributed to Ireland or whatever you want to use as an excuse, but that technically puts the USD in a complicated situation, and I definitely do not recommend any EUR/USD shorts unless we hit the high 1.36's again, else the situation is risky.

The Swissy broke its short term resistance line @ 0.9915, and had a minor follow-through, but the EUR/CHF crash made it not move as high as one would've expected. Let's pay attention to that 0.99 level in this pair, for a new losing of it might spar a new round of USD selling, which, as you know, and for the sake of a healthy move, I would more than welcome.

As you can see in the retail positioning below, AUD longs have increased (good for shorting the pair, I still aim @ 0.96 mid-term on that one, so shorting and keeping a full stop above 1.02 with that target in mind is recommended for mid-term players -only-), but still Euro and Cable longs are the minority, which makes today's moves even more fishy, so do not overexpose yourselves with USD longs from here.

Also very interesting to know that Gold failed again to break back above the broken support line off $1,150 (a dynamic resistance line that was coming today @ $1,363), and we saw the unit fall $20 after that, confirming that $1,315 should be next, forming that H&S pattern along the way and targeting $1,220 mid-term (very bearish on this unit I am!).

That's it for today, long/short retail ratio from brokerages below. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, and remember, being with investors-europe.com will give you the chance to have my intraday trading ideas for free.

Nov 22, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.62% 25.38%
   2. XAU/USD
      73.29% 26.71%
   3. USD/CHF
      71.39% 28.61%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.37% 37.63%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.75% 47.25%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.53% 51.47%
   7. GBP/USD
      44.22% 55.78%

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GBP/USD - our intraday target for shorts met (suggested trade of the day), longs now with 1.5920 stop suggested.

14:54CET

As we test key short-term support line in 1hr chart @ 1.5945, break below should see stops being triggered and an accelerated move south.

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European FX Midday recap

14:05CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires thus far and having a good impact on the markets.

    * Irish opposition finance spokesman Noonan: Hearing of policy difference between IMF and Europe
    * Moody’s says EU/IMF package will increase the Irish sovereign debt burden, a credit negative for Ireland. 
    * Multi-notch downgrade, leaving Ireland’s rating still within investment grade category, now most likely outcome
    * Irish junior govt party leader says believes it is time to set a date for general election in 2nd half of January 2011. 
    * Irish FinMin: Ireland is not bust, has substantial cash reserves.  No divergence of opinion between IMF and EU
    * German govt spokesman: We demand a stringent programme of reforms in Ireland
    * ECB’s Nowotny: Important to contain Ireland problems.  There are problems with individual states, not the euro
    * Japan vice FinMin Sakurai:  To take firm steps on yen rise as needed in collaboration with BOJ – Kyodo

Technically speaking, we've finally come to terms with the usual 'Monday' status, and the USD has staged a good comeback, hitting hard against the EUR, GBP and AUD, precisely the currencies that had put a bigger threat to the USD earlier in the morning. The EUR/USD has hit extreme OS territory in 15m charts and a bounce is more than likely from current 1.3650, so buying here is good, selling any upticks thereafter as the overall USD picture remains rather bullish.

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TRADE IDEA: SELL GBP/USD @ 1.6015, stop 1.6065, target 1.5945

12:53CET

As we get a more normal 'Monday market', now it's time to go with this approach. Using AUD/USD here @ 0.9910 for shorts is also OK.

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Weekly Analysis Report (prepared for Investors-Europe.com) Nov.22 2010

12:20CET

My usual weekly newsletter prepared for Investors-Europe.com is now released and available at the link below:

http://investors-europe.com/content/analysis/74/index.html

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DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

10:25CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3760 1.3790 1.3670
EURUSD BUY 1.3670 1.3610 1.3920
GBP/USD SELL 1.6110 1.6180 1.6020
USD/JPY BUY 82.90 82.40 83.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9870 0.9830 0.9970
USD/CHF SELL 0.9995 1.0025 0.9890

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Goldman's Take On The Irish Bailout

10:15CET

Earlier tonight, Ireland applied for conditional funding assistance and will therefore be the first Eurozone sovereign accessing the EU-IMF support framework instituted in May. The latest European Economics Analyst provides background. There are still several uncertainties surrounding the deal, including the government’s political support (a by-election is due this Thursday), and negotiations on the banks. The yield spread between 5-yr Irish government bonds and their German counterparts has fallen by around 100bp from the 600bp highs reached on 11 November. At this point, we see scope only for a further 50bp tightening. That said, we think that this represents an important step towards a resolution of EMU sovereign woes, and a gradual relaxation of the risk premium that has built up in Italy and Spain, and in Eastern Europe. - Goldman Sachs

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-take-irish-bailout

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Conquering Greece and Ireland with printed money

10:10CET

Very interesting piece, thought provoking.

Last week everybody in the European Union rushed to reassure Ireland that they will not put pressure on her to submit its economic and financial independence to the EU, and possibly the IMF. It was an effort to hide the…opposite.

http://www.neurope.eu/articles/Conquering-Greece-and-Ireland-with-printed-money/103761.php

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In Entitlement America, The Head Of A Household Of Four Making Minimum Wage Has More Disposable Income Than A Family Making $60,000 A Year - ZeroHedge.com

09:53CET

Tonight's stunning financial piece de resistance comes from Wyatt Emerich of The Cleveland Current. In what is sure to inspire some serious ire among all those who once believed Ronald Reagan that it was the USSR that was the "Evil Empire", Emmerich analyzes disposable income and economic benefits among several key income classes and comes to the stunning (and verifiable) conclusion that "a one-parent family of three making $14,500 a year (minimum wage) has more disposable income than a family making $60,000 a year." And that excludes benefits from Supplemental Security Income disability checks. America is now a country which punishes those middle-class people who not only try to work hard, but avoid scamming the system. Not surprisingly, it is not only the richest and most audacious thieves that prosper - it is also the penny scammers at the very bottom of the economic ladder that rip off the middle class each and every day, courtesy of the world's most generous entitlement system. Perhaps if Reagan were alive today, he would wish to modify the object of his once legendary remark.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/entitlement-america-head-household-making-minimum-wage-has-more-disposable-income-family-mak

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Extreme levels for the day

09:45CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3826 - extreme OS 1.3595
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6101 - extreme OS 1.5889
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.907 - extreme OS 83.015
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0025 - extreme OS 0.9845
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9982 - extreme OS 0.9793

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Economic Data for Today

09:24CET

11:00 - EUR - ECB President speaks ***

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market reaction will be, 1* lowest volatility.

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At the Open. Not quite the expected start of the week.

09:12CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The USD starts the day in the red vs the other majors in a rather unusual Monday, basically you know because of that rule of thumb that says that Mondays are good for the USD, Tuesdays are bad...All in all, the majors have gone to test (EUR and AUD) their 50% Fibo retracements of the last downleg, namely @ 1.3767 and 0.9950, from where we've had the chance to take some decent and fast pips. I believe that a second attempt to those levels will be less attractive to initiate shorts, so we better keep an eye on prices from now on rather than using those static levels again.

It is true that the USD got overbought most of last week and hence a correction should be expected, but I would not like to see the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the last downleg coming into play, as more often than not that is an indication that maybe the prevailing trend has come to an exhaustion point. Anyway, I'm ready to wait for the market to settle down a bit and then take the appropriate action, as for the time being the market remains rather aggressive for my taste.

Let me give you the FX retail positioning at this hour before leaving the opening post. Long/Short ratio below.

Nov 22, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.82% 25.18%
   2. XAU/USD
      74.76% 25.24%
   3. USD/CHF
      69.98% 30.02%
   4. USD/CAD
      63.23% 36.77%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.47% 49.53%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.02% 52.98%
   7. GBP/USD
      43.70% 56.30%

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At the Close. Good USD recovery in the end.

18:10CET

As the market seems to have gone home already (volatility has dried up in the last couple of hours), it's good to give a bit of a recap of how the situation stands at this point ahead of the next week.

The USD has made a very good comeback vs the majors after a threatening start of the day, where Cable got momentarily above a key downtrend line off recent highs (coming in @ 1.6065-70), Gold threatened the key dynamic resistance @ $1,361 and AUD/USD looked poised for further gains above 0.99, while EUR/USD was tripping above stops above 1.37 easily.

Finally, though, the next round of Fibo levels did not come to play and longs got trapped as the USD made a good comeback, gaining good ground, particularly vs the GBP and the CHF, where the effect of the rise in EUR/CHF has propelled, for almost the first time ever on my records, USD/CHF to pass from extremely OS to extremely OB in the same session, hitting 0.9880 in the morning, just to reverse course and hit 0.9990 again in the afternoon, where techs played their part and the unit went down again.

Technically speaking, there are two factors that I consider as leading at the moment: first, the key dynamic resistance line in Gold, and second, the dynamic resistance in USD/CHF, both of which have different implications for the course of the USD, and we have yet to see which one will be the key. Add to this the trendline in Cable, the most technical pair this morning, coming in @ 1.6060 on Monday and whihc will also be a key factor short-term for the USD.

Before calling it a week, please find below the retail positioning at this hour with the usual long/short ratio. I wish you a good weekend everyone and I look forward to your company on Monday again. Stay tuned to real-time trading tips @ twitter.com/ctainvestor and investors-europe.com.

Nov 19, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.71% 24.29%
   2. XAU/USD
      73.89% 26.11%
   3. USD/CHF
      69.29% 30.71%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.66% 38.34%
   5. AUD/USD
      51.16% 48.84%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.25% 51.75%
   7. GBP/USD
      44.54% 55.46%

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FSA: "We have listened on RDR"

http://bit.ly/cdy6T6

 

......

 

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European FX Midday recap

14:10CET

These have been the topics hitting the wires this morning and that have been most affecting the markets thus far:

    * China raises reserve requirements 50 bps (wire service initially incorrectly reported it was 50bps rate hike)
    * EU/IMF financial aid plan for Ireland likely to be announced next week -EU sources
    * Irish Minister: Impossible to say how much money is going to be required until the European/IMF team have examined banks
    * IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Europe has “serious growth problem”, productivity lags in Southern countries with competiveness problems
    * IMF’s Strauss Kahn:  Sovereign debt crisis not over in Europe
    * ECB’s Gonzalez Paramo: Bank’s role in systemic risk council will not affect its’ price stability objective
    * ECB’s Stark: Monetary policy strategy needs to be geared towards medium term, resist fine tuning temptation
    * Bernanke defends Fed’s policy, turns tables on China – Bloomberg
    * Hong Kong govt: To lower loan-to-value ratio for mortgages.  To raise stamp duty for short-term housing transactions.
    * IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Face problem that some may think worst of crisis over, so urge to make changes fades
    * BOJ’s Morimoto: Expansion of asset buying one strong option if economy worsens – Kyodo
    * Italy lower house passes 2011 budget law
    * German October PPI +0.4% m/m, +4.3% y/y, stronger than median forecasts +0.3%, +4.1% respectively

Technically speaking, a down morning for the USD; although there are very encouraging signs of a change, especially in EUR/USD, where the break back below 1.37 may be the leading factor for a new round of USD buying in the afternoon. Sell EUR rallies with stop on today's highs remains the best strategy as the unit has hit the extreme OB level too many times today.

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China raises rates by 50bp

11:43CET

And the markets have gone berserk. The USD initially gained on the news, sending Cable to 1.6040, Euro to 1.3665, AUD to 0.9830, but in a matter of minutes we are near the session and multi-day highs, with Cable hitting again the 1.6095 area, Euro back to 1.3720 etc.  Very knee-jerk market reaction and volatility at its peak as China finally confirms the rate rise after 3 consecutive Fridays of market rumors that it would be doing so...on a Friday, of course.

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Stay tuned with CTAinvestor.com

Want to get real-time accurate FX market analysis and real-time developments? The tune in with CTAinvestor.com and Twitter.com/ctainvestor to get real time market info from trader Tony Juste. Service sponsored by great offshore broker firm Investors Europe, offering MT4 and CNX platforms for active FX traders.

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Interesting view of the Ireland case

10:06CET

This run has taken the banks and Ireland to the edge of collapse, with the biggest losers likely not to be the Irish, but UK banks which have huge loans to Ireland, its banks, companies and people; well over $US200 billion by some estimates.
Since August billions of euros have been transferred out of Ireland's stricken banks to other destinations, which seem to be all outside the country because the Irish central bank has been forced to cover billions of euros of funding gaps in the system in September and October, according to reports late last week and this week.

The new figures - from the Bank for International Settlements - disclose that Britain faces the biggest potential losses from a meltdown in the Irish economy.

UK banks have lent more than those from any other country to the Irish government, consumers and businesses.

No wonder the UK government is offering a reported 7 billion pounds ($US10 billion) or so in loans.

Collapse in Ireland would plunge the UK financial system into dangerous territory for the second time in three years, and the UK government along with it as it controls RBS and Lloyds.

RBS alone is reported to have 50 billion pounds invested.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=18656

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Extreme levels for the day

09:55CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3754 - extreme OS 1.3522 - we are close to OB
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6140 - extreme OS 1.5924
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.997 - extreme OS 82.905
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0032 - extreme OS 0.9860 - moving close to OS
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9976 - extreme OS 0.9787

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Economic Data for Today

09:42CET

11:15-11:45 - USD - Fed Chairman speaks ***

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market reaction will be, 1* lowest volatility.

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At the Open. Europeans vs USD game.

09:27CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. It's a clear old-fashioned style market, with the 'real' majors (take out the JPY for this matter) taking the lead in the market and causing the most problems to the USD, which, by the way, is keeping itself rather afloat vs the AUD. Speaking of this pair, there is the confluence of two important technical factors: (a) the dynamic resistance line in the $1,360 level in Gold, which is putting a brake to the advance of the unit; and (b) the fact that the AUD itself is testing very important resistance lines @ 0.99-9920, let alone the fact that above there we have the 50% retracement of the last downleg and then some more with parity Fibo.

Speaking of resistances, the key pair to watch today is Cable. The unit is testing very seriously the downtrend off the recent highs, coming in @ 1.6075 today. Whatever it happens with the line, I feel that Cable can be the driving force vs the USD in today's round, so I would pay special attention to it.

As for EUR/USD, the unit has barriers (decent) only around 1,3750 from here, so not too much to comment on it, unless we get up there. SUpport remains in the 1.3620 zone.

Before closing this opening post, let's see how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Long/Short ratio provided below.

Nov 19, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. XAU/USD
      75.73% 24.27%
   2. USD/JPY
      75.48% 24.52%
   3. USD/CHF
      69.16% 30.84%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.18% 38.82%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.57% 49.43%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.45% 52.55%
   7. GBP/USD
      43.25% 56.75%

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At the Close. Correction....or something else?

18:00CET

It was more or less expected that after the USD moves seen in recent days, sooner or later we would have a day where things would at least come to a halt, thus it would then be time for renewed speculation on what would happen next. Well, that projected day was/is today, and thus we have to analyze things a bit more in detail to try to guess where we are headed from here.

First, EUR/USD broke (and remains above) the 1.3570 resistance level, and moved past 1.3660 second important resistance, where it failed to advance further and lost ground. Right now is testing the intermediate level 1.3615/20. Only on a clean break of 1.3750 should USD bulls have a tough time in defending their positions in my opinion.

Second, USD/CHF and USD/JPY, despite their modest sell-offs in the morning, have recovered all lost ground and in the case of USD/CHF, we've hit parity for first time in many months, at the time the unit was testing an important short-term dynamic resistance line, therefore shorts have taken control and we're off by 50 pips and I'm afraid there is more to come, unless EUR/CHF inverted SHS pattern comes to life faster thane expected, but that's not for me to decide. FOr the time being, selling USD/CHF looks like a good strategy if you don't like the USD-long way.

Third, Cable and Aussie/Gold. Cable is very stubborn today, and it's refusing to go down even a pip, and the 1.5975 resistance has become now tough support. As for AUD/USD and Gold, the fact that the latter has a key dynamic resistance line (former key and primary uptrend line) @ $1,358 which is still holding a first pullback attempt, is making the unit less active than its peers today, with 0.99 so far capping the upside, but I would wait to see if that level holds, for it marks 38.2% of the latest downleg, and a break exposes 0.9950 (50%) and more importantly 1.0005 (61.8%).

With this in mind, let's have a last look at how retail traders are doing at this hour on their long/short ratio. Still too many longs in EUR and GBP pairs, I still don't feel comfortable with that...

Nov 18, 2010 18:00 GMT+01h

   1. USD/JPY
      75.73% 24.27%
   2. XAU/USD
      75.31% 24.69%
   3. USD/CHF
      70.48% 29.52%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.15% 37.85%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.11% 49.89%
   6. EUR/USD
      46.76% 53.24%
   7. GBP/USD
      41.70% 58.30%

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European FX Midday recap

14:11CET

These are the topics that have had an impact on the markets thus far in the European session:

    * Irish central bank governor:  Expects loan from Europe, IMF  (not a bail-out mind) will be large. Will run into 10’s of billions €.
    * Irish govt minister: Expects 4 year fiscal plan to be published around middle of next week
    * Spain PM: Highly probable to meet 2010 growth targets
    * UK October retail sales +0.5%, slightly better than median forecast of +0.4%
    * UK PSNCR 2.431 bln, lower than median forecast of 6.0 bln, PSNB 9.77 bln, higher than median forecast of 9.0 bln
    * UK CBI November manufacturing order book balance -15 vs -28 in October, better than median forecast of -24
    * Swiss ZEW investor sentiment -30.9 in November, deterioration from -27.5 in October
    * Germany’s Merkel: Euro is vital to German interests
    * South Korea to reintroduce withholding tax on foreigners bond investment – FinMin official
    * BOJ considers increasing capital to prepare for asset purchasing – Kyodo (report doesn’t mention amount/timing)
    * Japanese govt maintains overall economic assessment, says economy at a standstill
    * Japan EconMin Kaieda: Can’t say that yen has weakened enough recently
    * Nikkei 225 will surge in cycle convergence – Bloomberg
    * France’s Lagarde: Euro zone is not at risk of breaking up
    * China may hike rates another 100 bps (not all in one go mind) Interesting video

Technically speaking, EUR/USD has tripped above many stops in the 1.3600-20 area, Cable has done so in the 1.5975-90 area and USD/CHF has broken important intraday support line @ 0.9870, which has put a lot of pressure to the USD. The picture has not been (totally) followed by AUD/USD, as the unit, quite correlated to Gold, has seen that unit stalling at key dynamic resistance $1,357-8. All in all, retail traders still remain too much long in USD despite the recent sell-offs across the board, and that may not be helpful at all in an otherwise usually (like Tuesday) USD-selling day.

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Greece on the spot again

11:46CET

Greece is on the spot again after some comments from 'perhaps' its worst enemy at the moment: Germany. Check the Reuters link below for details.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6400RW20100501|

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Interesting piece on ZeroHedge.com

11:11CET

The guys @ ZeroHedge, you know, one of my favorite sites to watch some insight from other markets, have an interesting piece from Knight research that I recommend reading.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/knight-research-stunning-call-game-over

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Extreme levels for the Day

09:27CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3662 - extreme OS 1.3442
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6022 - extreme OS 1.5796
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.785 - extreme OS 82.686
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9982 - extreme OS 0.9824
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9915 - extreme OS 0.9717

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Economic Data for Today

09:14CET

10:00 - EUR - Current Account **
10:30 - GBP - Retail Sales and public borrowing ***
12:00 - GBP - CBI industrial orders expectations ***
14:30 - USD - Jobless claims **
16:00 - USD - Philadelphia Fed Index ***

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on my expected market reaction, 1* lowest volatility.

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At the Open. Expected correction.

09:05CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Well, at last we've had it, I mean the USD correction. The leader on this round keeps being the USD/CHF, who alerted us of the USD overbought status and who triggered the first short signals yesterday. The correction, although only modest, serves to create a better picture for any future USD advance to come, for many longs have squared, therefore if they were to re-start their positions, they would do so from a fresh start.

Interesting to note today that Gold is testing the broken support line, now resistance line @ 1,357, I feel that taking shorts here with a stop above 1,365 is a good trading idea, still aiming at that neckline of the bigger formation @ 1,315 to be tested. Honestly, I do not know whether this correction will last or not, but when it comes to gold it has been more than reasonable in terms of price.

As for the other majors, only interest thus far in EUR/USD, who has corrected mildly to 1.36, and where sell orders are reported around 1.3620-25, and I have to say that taking a short there looks good to me. Cable is stubbornly low this morning, only a EUR and CHF affair it seems.

To conclude this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Long/Short ratio provided below.

Nov 18, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

   1. XAU/USD
      76.11% 23.89%
   2. USD/JPY
      75.94% 24.06%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.78% 31.22%
   4. USD/CAD
      60.55% 39.45%
   5. AUD/USD
      51.86% 48.14%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.62% 52.38%
   7. GBP/USD
      46.26% 53.74%

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At the Close. The USD advance comes to a halt.

18:20CET

The USD has not been able to continue its progress vs the majors, and this can just be good news if there is to be a bigger USD upmove, because any corrections will mean healthier upmoves if/when they come. The corrections thus far have not been impressive, but have in any case put a brake on the USD advance, particularly in USD/CHF, where the unit has dived sub-0.99, correcting off some of its recent overbought status. EUR/USD important resistance line (short-term) is coming in @ 1.3560, and seems it won't be taken out on a first attempt, so a fast short can be tried there for some wishes of success.

As a recap, take a look below at how FX retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. I'm Tony Juste, CMA of CTAinvestor.com, thanks for watching this blog, I'll see you all tomorrow.

Nov 17, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      77.23% 22.77%
   2. XAU/USD
      75.31% 24.69%
   3. USD/CHF
      70.34% 29.66%
   4. USD/CAD
      60.58% 39.42%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.66% 49.34%
   6. EUR/USD
      46.87% 53.13%
   7. GBP/USD
      43.49% 56.51%

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FX retailers' positioning at this hour

13:22CET

Here's how thins stand in long/short retail ratio positions. I still don't get it with EUR and GBP after yesterday's losses, there must be a lot of people making money these days...Thankfully, XAU and AUD are long in majority, so hope the Europeans will follow there as well. What I also don't like is the little change in USD/CHF longs despite the recent rally, something's fishy there.
Nov 17, 2010 13:20 GMT+01

   1. USD/JPY
      78.04% 21.96%
   2. XAU/USD
      73.48% 26.52%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.69% 31.31%
   4. USD/CAD
      60.88% 39.12%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.20% 49.80%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.24% 52.76%
   7. GBP/USD
      44.65% 55.35%

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European FX Midday recap

13:19CET

This is a recap of what has been hitting the wires this morning and causing some market impact.

    * Fed’s Evans: Wants to apply accomodative policy until confident economic situation changing and feels $600 bln is a good place to start
    * Fed’s Rosengren: Expects to buy entire $600 bln of bonds as dramtic improvement absent, and would consider more action if needed.
    * China’s consumer confidence drops in Q3 – Stats Agency
    * China cabinet: Will make moves to stabilise prices
    * LCH Clearnet ups margin requirements to trade Irish government debt to 30% of net position
    * Finnish FinMin: Difficult to believe Ireland does not need financial help
    * Irish FinMin: Finance ministers of eurozone are determined to take action to ensure stability of eurozone
    * Irish PM: Focus is on what way assistance can be provided to deal with siuation in Ireland. 
    * Austrian FinMin: Greek payment tranche will be postponed to January from December. Greek numbers look significantly better
    * Greek FinMin:  Delay of EU part of aid tranche to Greece till January is due to technical difficulties.
    * BOE minutes: 7 MPC voted for unchanged policy in November, Posen for 50 bln QE, Snetance for 25 bps rate hike
    * UK October jobless claims fell -3,700, better than median forecast of +5,000.  First monthly fall since July

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Extreme levels for the day

10:17CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3627 - extreme OS 1.3379
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6015 - extreme OS 1.5763
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.917 - extreme OS 82.796
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0030 - extreme OS 0.9866
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9876 - extreme OS 0.9646

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Economic Data for Today

09:15CET

10:30 - GBP - Unemployment figures ****
14:30 - USD - CPI ****

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market reaction will be, 1* lowest.

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At the Open. Reaching key technical levels.

09:10CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The start of the day sees majors more or less where they were vs the USD yesterday, so no big change for the time being, although some bounces have been seen overnight. However, it is not how the day starts what I'm looking at, is how we will finish it. Basically, because there are certain technical aspects that we need to monitor for today:

- EUR/USD is trading near the 50% retracement of the last upleg @ 1.3435.
- GBP/USD is trading very near a key support line @ 1.5825
- Gold is close to the neckline of a long pattern @ $1,315

If the above levels hold, at least for a first attempt, then the USD will definitely correct for good for a while, particularly in USD/CHF and USD/JPY where the moves are more than just technical, they start to be somewhat an aberration, and it just amazes me, because it means there are many retail traders making loads of money, as the majority of retailers keep LONG the pairs! (A very unusual situation, if you ask me).

Let me conclude this opening post with the situation in the retail front on long/short ratio positioning. Welcome to the real-time market analysis show @ CTAinvestor.com.

Nov 17, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      78.02% 21.98%
   2. XAU/USD
      73.38% 26.62%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.95% 31.05%
   4. USD/CAD
      59.80% 40.20%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.56% 49.44%
   6. EUR/USD
      46.28% 53.72%
   7. GBP/USD
      44.19% 55.81%

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At the Close. A very unusual Tuesday...

18:01CET

It's not that I don't like it (I just love it), it's that I was not expecting it to happen on a Tuesday! Big USD rally today, hitting all imaginable stops in all majors and Gold, and trapping many shorts wrong-footed (it was time!). The Euro has printed a 1.3495 low vs the USD, Cable almost diving to 1.5840, AUD 0.9720 and Gold is very near a neckline 2 1,315 of a tremendous SHS formation that would definitely mark more gains for the USD in the mid-term. There is little to add to this, i.e, buy USD on dips and believe the trend has changed for good in the mid-term, preferably playing the GBP as the vehicle to do so (and AUD above 0.98) rather than the very much oversold now EUR/USD.

Before leaving, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour, I still find amazing that so many are making money with this latest EUR dive! I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, look forward to your company tomorrow.

Nov 16, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      78.17% 21.83%
   2. XAU/USD
      72.35% 27.65%
   3. USD/CHF
      71.20% 28.80%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.80% 38.20%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.47% 49.53%
   6. EUR/USD
      50.07% 49.93%
   7. GBP/USD
      45.75% 54.25%

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Stay tuned with CTAinvestor.com

Stay tuned with all the latest market data and analysis from CTAinvestor.com and www.twitter.com/ctainvestor for real-time trading tips. opening an account with the best offshore broker Investors Europe (www.investors-europe.com) will give you the chance to access daily trading tips from the strategist @ CTAinvestor.com and profit from his own trade ideas, so come and join the best trading solution offshore for MT4 and CNX platforms.

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European FX Midday recap

14:11CET

Recap of the items that have hit the wires for the day thus far...

    * Shanghai stock index ends down hefty 3.9%, one month low. Jitters surrounding further PBOC monetary tightening
    * S.Korea fx authorities spotted buying dollars to check won’s strength – Dealers
    * Dudley tells CNBC Fed critics don’t “understand” exit strategy
    * Ireland’s Europe Minister: No reason why Ireland should trigger EU or IMF bailout
    * Ireland’s Cowen to weigh EU steps to shore up bank system – Bloomberg
    * German EconMin Bruederle: It’s up to Ireland to take decision on EU aid, but does not think it is needed
    * ECB’s Constancio: No necessary link between Ireland taking any aid and Portugal
    * UK October CPI +0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, above median forecasts +0.2%, +3.1% respectively. Highest y/y rate since June.
    * BOE’s King in letter to UK govt: MPC ready to adjust policy in either direction. CPI likely to remain above target for next year.
    * German November ZEW: Economic sentiment +1.8%, much stronger than median forecast of -7.0
    * CEBS’s Carosio: Preparations for next EU banks’ stress test underway. Results due next June
    * Japan FinMin Noda: To take decisive steps on forex, including intervention when necessary

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USD/CHF techs - break of support trendline

11:12CET

One of the tech signals that I was looking for in order to have a better Swissy correction, i.e, the break of the rising trendline off the low 0.97s and which means the steepest short-term support line for the pair, has finally been confirmed in the last hour with the break of the 0.9850 level.

If this break has some follow-through, we should see 0.9790 or thereabouts printing rather soon, but in any case, selling any rallies (even if it goes to test the broken line around 0.9860 now) is the favored strategy short term in this pair, that is, for the next couple of days,

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DAILY FX TRADING TIPS (EXCERPT)

09:35CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. To review these and other strategies, and to have a direct chat with the strategist, open a live account with www.Investors-Europe.com and ask for the trading tips help, a service you'll receive 24h a day with full monitoring of trades. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2010 09:12 CET

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3670 1.3730 1.3540
EURUSD BUY 1.3555 1.3510 1.3650
GBP/USD SELL 1.6110 1.6180 1.6020
USD/JPY BUY 81.90 81.40 82.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9690 0.9660 0.9780
USD/CHF SELL 0.9850 0.9880 0.9790

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Extreme levels for the day

09:33CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3735 - extreme OS 1.3468
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6174 - extreme OS 1.5939
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.717 - extreme OS 82.326
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9985 - extreme OS 0.9734
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0241 - extreme OS 1.0037

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Economic Data for Today

09:11CET

10:30 - GBP - CPI ****
11:00 - EUR - German ZEW ****
11:00 - EUR - CPI ***
Tentative   - BoE inflation letter ***
14:30 - USD - PPI ***
15:00 - USD - TICS capital inflows **
16:30 - GBP - BoE Governor speaks ***

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market reaction will be, 1* lowest.

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At the Open. A usual Tuesday ahead?

09:03CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Yesterday I called it a 'classic' Monday, referring to the fact that the USD usually gains ground on Mondays and so it proved to be the case. Tuesdays, in the other hand, are generally USD-selling days, so I'm curious to see whether that trend will persist today....or not.

EUR/USD starts the day around 1.36 after having hit a 1.3559 low, i.e, very close to the important 1.3550 support level, from where it has spiked almost 100 pips to 1.3650, in what it has been a massive USD-selling hour (noon Chinese time), for Cable has hit 1.6090 off 1.6040 levels and AUD/USD has seen 0.9890 off 0.9815. Speaking of Cable, the unit should see volatility picking up big time today as we have the release of the CPI figures @ 10:30CET.

Again, the non-healthy behavior by the usually two lagging USD pairs, i.e, USD/CHF and USD/JPY (and particularly the former), may put some weight to the USD advance for the time being. I'd like to see a better correction in the Swissy off that 0.9850 tough resistance level, but so far nothing good has come out of it.

Speaking of 'better moves' to be seen, the short signal in Gold (triggered @ $1,370), has so far yielded poorly, and the unit is resisting to break 1,350 en route towards the key 1,315 neckline, where a bigger formation might be shaping. I feel, however, that it will be tomorrow or the day after when we will see that pattern kicking in for good. As usual, here's a long/short positioning ratio by the retail hands at this hour, surprising to see EUR still with more shorts than longs after all the drop it's seen.

Nov 16, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      77.64% 22.36%
   2. USD/CHF
      72.73% 27.27%
   3. XAU/USD
      71.98% 28.02%
   4. USD/CAD
      69.78% 30.22%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.29% 49.71%
   6. EUR/USD
      49.92% 50.08%
   7. GBP/USD
      40.33% 59.67%

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At the Close. Usual Monday.

18:22CET

A usual Monday in many respects, but basically in the fact, as it has been discussed many times before here, that Monday is a USD-buying day, as so is Tuesday a USD-selling day. I do not know the reasons why this is so, but the fact is that the rule remains true.

EUR/USD is flirting with a clean break of the 1.36 support line, and that would mean that next support 1.3550 should be sooner rather than later being put at test. That said, the EUR is generally weaker across the board, as now the market turns to it instead of the USD to blame for what is going on around the world...

The rest of the majors are also showing some good USD shape, but I'm a bit reluctant to call for sustained USD gains as long as USD/CHF remains pushing without correcting off key levels. The unit has failed to clear the 0.9850 resistance, but all retracements are shallow, thus making the situation a bit overstretched there. On the other hand, the fact that the short signal in Gold has not (yet) triggered any good follow-through may be a good support for the USD. We shall see...

I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, I look forward to meeting you again tomorrow.

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New woes arise in the EZ

15:15CET

Excellent recap of how the situation witht he EZ debt and the countries facing the most of the danger is. Article by Jamie Coleman @ ForexLive.com

http://www.forexlive.com/146150/all/europe-trying-to-create-a-fire-break

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European FX Midday recap

13:51CET

List of the items that have hit the wires this morning thus far and that can be considered of relative importance:

    * France’s Lagarde: There is no request for European aid from Ireland
    * Ireland considering asking for EU money for its’ banks. Ireland request for bank aid would be to fend off bailout of state
    * Irish junior minister: There are continuous talks, but none about Ireland triggering the bailout mechanism
    * ECB vice Pres Constancio: ECB liquidity has been supportive of Irish banks, this is kind of support Ireland can expect.
    * Irish 5 year cds at 520 bps, down 20 bps on day – Markit
    * ECB’s Nowotny: Euro has and will continue to be important growth anchor for European region
    * Greek PM: German position on debt resolution led to interest rate spiral for Ireland, Portugal. 
    * Greek 2009 budget deficit revised upwards to 15.4%/GDP from previous 13.6% – Eurostat
    * Euro zone 2009 budget deficit was 6.3%/GDP vs 2%/GDP in 2008 – Eurostat
    * BOE’s Weale: At present MPC does not see compelling case for either tightening or loosening policy
    * Banco Santander CEO: Funding situation for Spanish banks is improving
    * Bank of Spain Governor Ordonez: Can’t rule out non-performing bank loans could rise in coming months
    * German Q3 residential real estate prices +1.4% y/y, strongest rise since Q4 2008

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