At the Open. Not quite the expected start of the week.

09:12CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The USD starts the day in the red vs the other majors in a rather unusual Monday, basically you know because of that rule of thumb that says that Mondays are good for the USD, Tuesdays are bad...All in all, the majors have gone to test (EUR and AUD) their 50% Fibo retracements of the last downleg, namely @ 1.3767 and 0.9950, from where we've had the chance to take some decent and fast pips. I believe that a second attempt to those levels will be less attractive to initiate shorts, so we better keep an eye on prices from now on rather than using those static levels again.

It is true that the USD got overbought most of last week and hence a correction should be expected, but I would not like to see the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the last downleg coming into play, as more often than not that is an indication that maybe the prevailing trend has come to an exhaustion point. Anyway, I'm ready to wait for the market to settle down a bit and then take the appropriate action, as for the time being the market remains rather aggressive for my taste.

Let me give you the FX retail positioning at this hour before leaving the opening post. Long/Short ratio below.

Nov 22, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.82% 25.18%
   2. XAU/USD
      74.76% 25.24%
   3. USD/CHF
      69.98% 30.02%
   4. USD/CAD
      63.23% 36.77%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.47% 49.53%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.02% 52.98%
   7. GBP/USD
      43.70% 56.30%

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