At the Open. Watching from the stars.

09:08CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The situation at the start of the week remains supportive for the USD, as most pairs tried to make some early gains vs. the greenback overnight and have just fallen to new session lows as USD positioning gets healthier. Last Friday was a very eventful day when it comes to technical analysis, for we had the confirmation of a sell signal in Gold (XAU/USD), which should be supportive for the USD in the weeks ahead. It was a daily confirmation, and although the last 2-3 confirmations have not been of much use, I feel this one is more real, given the overall context in which we are trading these days.

EUR/USD is falling to the key 1.3620 area (which was marginally broken last week) again, and Cable has lost much of its bullish momentum (which kept it afloat when the others were diving), as it trades well under 1.61 now. The Swissy, however, got oversold when it hit 0.9850 and that may put some brakes to the USD advance, depending on which pair you want to trade. As for the USD/JPY, the unit is trading well above 82.50 resistance, and this is good news, for shorts are getting more nervous now, and a liquidation of short positions in this pair will make the USD look much better indeed.

Before finishing this opening post, let me give you how retailers are positioning themselves at this hour.

Nov 15, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100
%LONG / 5SHORT
   1. USD/JPY
      78.11% 21.89%
   2. USD/CHF
      72.50% 27.50%
   3. XAU/USD
      72.19% 27.81%
   4. USD/CAD
      68.79% 31.21%
   5. AUD/USD
      49.79% 50.21%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.87% 51.13%
   7. GBP/USD
      37.69% 62.31%

Posted via email from MT4