Monday, November 8, 2010

At the Open. EUR/USD retail positioning shifts for good.

09:18CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. I believe most of you wanted me to start the week commenting on the (ever distorted) NFP numbers and the USD reaction, but that would be doing what everyone else is and I honestly find it rather boring. Instead, I've been monitoring rather closely the retail activity after the failure @ 1.43 in Euro and 1.63 in Cable and what I've found is that they've been trapped once more into the arms of the big bear, who lied to them when made they them believe 1.45 was next target instead of looking at techs properly.

There is but one pair that remains healthy when it comes to market positioning and that is the AUD, but distances are shortening as well there. The shift in positioning in EUR/USD is a massive move, and if we break the dynamic line @ 1,3940-50 (the downtrend line broken a few days ago to the upside to confirm the bear trap), then we have a massive downside move in our hands, with 1.34-35 at least as a potential target. All indicators are supporting this view at present and the fact that the minor support line @ 1.3990 was broken that easily is a symptom that the market is about to crush USD shorts.

Find attached the current retail readings and you'll find it good to go long the USD (or short EUR/USD) for a bigger target. Also, take a closer look at Gold, who made a tiny extension high @ around 1,395, but has not sustained those gains and daily techs will be weighing on it very soon.

Nov 8, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

   1. AUD/USD
      43.76% 56.24%
   2. EUR/CHF
      56.35% 43.65%
   3. EUR/GBP
      39.23% 60.77%
   4. EUR/JPY
      63.19% 36.81%
   5. EUR/USD
      51.78% 48.22%
   6. GBP/JPY
      64.67% 35.33%
   7. GBP/USD
      48.10% 51.90%
   8. USD/CAD
      70.44% 29.56%
   9. USD/CHF
      70.26% 29.74%
  10. USD/JPY
      78.06% 21.94%

Posted via email from MT4

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