Bloomberg : UBS Executives and Insider Trading Practices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/ubs-former-executives-show-swiss-bank-s-unflattering-side-in-u-s-courts.html

………

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year!

News Brought to you By:
investorseurope
745 Europort
Gibraltar GX11 1AA
T  +350 200 40303
F  +350 200 51795
@mt4offshore

Investors Europe Limited is a Gibraltar incorporated, MiFID compliant
stock, futures and Forex stock broker regulated by the Financial Services
Commission. Read our disclaimers on Spot Forex, on the diffusion of third
party products, news, services, U.S. Persons

    

Forex Brokerage: http://boulle.co/forex_ie                 DEMO : http://boulle.co/DEMOFOREX
Stock Brokerage: http://boulle.co/client_ie                DEMO : http://boulle.co/demoplatform
Futures Brokers: http://boulle.co/futures_trading  DEMO : http://boulle.co/futures_Demo 

Chat Skype: investorseurope

Contact Me LinkedinFacebookGoogle ReaderTwitterXingBloggerPicasaWordpressPhotobucketLast.fmOrkutStumbleUpon

Gibraltar Stock Broker Gibraltar Monkey III, Gibraltar Monkey V, Welcome back to Europe

-- PO Box 2221 Road Town Tortola VG1110 British Virgin Islands

Posted via email from MT4

Wikileak 'makes Bank of America buy domains such as BrianMoynihanSucks.com' and bankofamerica666.com ??

http://boulle.co/bankofamerica666 

 

...

News brought to you by:
investorseurope
745 Europort
Gibraltar GX11 1AA
T  +350 200 40303
F  +350 200 51795
@mt4offshore
A Gibraltar Stock, Futures and Forex broker regulated by the Financial Services Commission. Read our disclaimers on Spot Forex, the diffusion of third party products, news, services and U.S. Persons.   

Forex Brokerage: http://boulle.co/forex_ie                DEMO : http://boulle.co/DEMOFOREX 
Stock Brokerage: http://boulle.co/client_ie               DEMO : http://boulle.co/demoplatform 
Futures Brokers: http://boulle.co/futures_trading   DEMO: http://boulle.co/futures_Demo

Posted via email from MT4

Leave Euro, Pimco tells Greece, Ireland and Portugal - What about Spain!?

http://boulle.co/PIGSeuro 

 

......

 

News Brought to you By:

investorseurope
745 Europort
Gibraltar GX11 1AA
T  +350 200 40303
F  +350 200 51795
@mt4offshore
Investors Europe, a Gibraltar stock, futures and forex broker regulated by the Financial Services Commission. Read our disclaimers on spot forex, on the diffusion of third party products, news, services and U.S. Persons U.S. Persons  http://www.investorseurope.com/disclaimer.html 

Forex Brokerage: http://boulle.co/forex_ie               DEMO : http://boulle.co/demo_forex

Stock Brokerage: http://boulle.co/client_ie              DEMO : http://boulle.co/demoplatform

Futures Brokers: http://boulle.co/futures_trading  DEMO: http://boulle.co/futures_Demo

Gibraltar Stock Broker : http://bit.ly/gibraltarfeed 

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. CHF, Gold...and something else.

18:43CET

It (perhaps) is going to be the story of the year-end. EUR/CHF new record lows day after day are evidencing that there is at least one cross of real interest to blood-seekers and that they are willing to do anything in their power to push it to extremes before anything meaningful can be seen in reverse.

Indeed, 1.2633 is the new record low to note down, maybe the last one for now, maybe not. One thing is for sure, there is plenty of trading in that cross, and that is affecting its two major components, i.e, EUR/USD and USD/CHF. However, USD/CHF is being a 'side effect' on the process, as it is mainly a EUR thing altogether.

EUR/USD has tanked to sub-1.31 levels, although is trading above the 200 daily SMA @ 1.3102 as I write this, and it just gave me a false trading signal in the 1hr chart as I had a long trigger that did not materialize. However, a new long trigger could be seen shortly, and that might just cover the earlier loss, any new stop on longs must be below moderate support 1.3060.

GBP/USD, on the contrary, gave us 3 good technical triggers that more than compensated for the EUR/USD single loss. As I had reported on the morning's opening commentary, I was looking to short the unit @ 1.5570 and then buy around 1.5525 as those 2 levels should work on a first attempt and so they did. The break of the trendline off Friday lows intraday was more than a good signal to go with and as I reported via twitter (www.twitter.com/ctainvestor), we had a good technical trigger to follow there. The final target @ 1.5485 printed fast in early afternoon, when the USD saw some buying vs the majors.

Not worth talking about the JPY these days, although I feel we may see the crosses there explode anytime soon, for on a mid-term basis they are starting to look rather bullish to me.

Before concluding the day, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves long/short on majors. Keep also an eye on Gold, the first attempt to break the resistance line off the recent highs failed, but the unit is still close to it. Thank you for watching the site, which is brought to you by good offshore brokerage firm investors-europe.com.

Dec 20, 2010 18:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.84% 24.16%
   2. USD/CHF
      73.49% 26.51%
   3. XAU/USD
      69.98% 30.02%
   4. USD/CAD
      59.77% 40.23%
   5. GBP/USD
      50.26% 49.74%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.03% 52.97%
   7. AUD/USD
      45.20% 54.80%

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

13:37CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and have had some impact on the markets thus far in European trade:

    * North Korean army: “It is not worth reacting to provocation” from SouthKorea’s exercise – KCNA
    * German November PPI +0.2% m/m, +4.4% y/y, marginally weaker than median forecasts of +0.3%, +4.5% respectively
    * UK interest rates ‘will have to rise sixfold in two years’ – CBI
    * ECB’s Trichet: Believes euro not cause of euro zone crisis
    * Self-righteous Germany must accept a euro-debt union or leave EMU -  AEP at The Telegraph
    * OECD:  Spain could raise taxes further if more consolidation measures needed
    * Aussie leads ‘extreme’ currencies Deutsche says avoid – Bloomberg
    * Mortgage approvals by major UK lenders 45k in November, up from 44k in October.   Amount lent in November 1.3 bln.

EUR/USD sits at 1.3155, exactly where it was when I arrived about 6 1/2  hours ago.   An early rally failed to reach the 1.3187 overnight high, as BIS stepped in and sold around 1.3175.

On a trading note, I issued a buy recommendation on the pair since we have a 1hr buy trigger there.

Sell stops seen through 1.3100.  Buy stops through 1.3210.

USD/JPY marginally easier, down at 83.75 from early 83.90.  Buy orders seen clustered 83.60/70, sell stops through 83.55 and more through 83.40.

Cable has gained marginally, up at 1.5550 from early 1.5510. Indeed sterling hasn’t done too badly in general, EUR/GBP down at .8460 from early .8480.  The CBI raising the spectre of higher UK interest rates will have helped here (see above)

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING: Cable could confirm a bullish divergence on dailies if it rises back again towards 1.57, but with big economic data coming up on Wednesday, I think we will have to wait for that before a confirmation is clear. In any case, I recommend monitoring Cable very closely.

Posted via email from MT4

TRADE IDEA: Buy EUR/USD @ 1.3162 (MARKET), stop 1.3120, target 1.3260, open trade

13:36CET

Sent via twiiter.com/ctainvestor - looks like a good positional trade to me

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. It's crosses time.

09:45CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Just few days before Christmas time, but the market is showing some of its cards already. CHF and JPY crosses are the main dominant factors of the market at the moment, with EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY being the 2 crosses that I will focus my attention for today, as they are driving the EUR and most of the direct USD crosses as I write this opening post.

EUR/USD slipped back below the magnet line (broken support line that is not acting as resistance line but rather as a magnet line), and I believe it will be doing so for the time being unless an unexpected event occurs. GBP/USD is benefiting from the EUR/GBP sell-off (the unit hit a dynamic resistance line @ 0.8550 and tanked very fast), but it's getting close to extreme OB levels @ 1.5575, so I would not touch it on the long side for now, or even attempt fast contras if the high 1.55's are seen.

USD/JPY and USD/CHF are, as said before, dominated by the crosses, and therefore analyzing them may not be that important for the time being. However, it's important to note that the former has a 4hr divergence that is weighing on it and the latter is moving close to extreme OS level intraday @ 0.9640, where small longs might attempted.

STRATEGIES FOR THE DAY

EUR/USD - Sell above 1.3200-10 (we would find extreme OB levels there) and/or Buy below 1.3125 (we will find the extreme OS level there)
USD/CHF - Sell only above 0.9720 and/or Buy around 0.9640-30 as a fast contra with a few pips target
GBP/USD - Sell anything above 1.5570 as a fast contra for fast pips and attempt modest longs @ 1.5525 expecting the current intraday uptrend line to hold.

In other markets, AUD/USD and Gold are both rising today as the latter is testing key dynamic resistance off the recent highs, as the unit is trading @ $1,385. I'm still bearish there but I feel that a new breach of $1,400 might be catastrophic for my interests. Needless to say that the daily megadivergence there (even weekly now) is not paying off anything at the moment.

Before concluding this post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour:

Dec 20, 2010 10:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.13% 24.87%
   2. USD/CHF
      71.65% 28.35%
   3. XAU/USD
      71.00% 29.00%
   4. USD/CAD
      65.33% 34.67%
   5. GBP/USD
      53.24% 46.76%
   6. EUR/USD
      49.80% 50.20%
   7. AUD/USD
      48.45% 51.55%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. The CHF star shining bright.

18:34CET

The Swiss players are pushing their currency higher this afternoon in another impulse to new record highs vs the EUR and near all-time lows vs USD, and this is the main FX topic for the time being. The other pairs seem to be dancing at the song of the CHF crosses, so it will be interesting to keep an eye on them for the time being. I don't like the CHF strength and will certainly not take it at current levels, so either wait for contras or ignore it, but certainly don't play the CHF strength for the time being.

In the other pairs, I will only highlight the fact, the good technical point, that EUR/USD held its moderate support @ 1.3180 and bounced modestly, which indicates that despite the pair's softness (the EU summit ahead of the weekend may have some impact on the pair), techs are still working fine.

Before concluding this closing post, find below how retail traders are positioning themselves long/short at this hour. Thank you for reading my piece of space on the internet. Brought to you by great offshore broker investors-europe.com.

Dec 16, 2010 18:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/CHF
      73.62% 26.38%
   2. USD/JPY
      73.33% 26.67%
   3. USD/CAD
      72.95% 27.05%
   4. XAU/USD
      71.68% 28.32%
   5. GBP/USD
      50.23% 49.77%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.24% 51.76%
   7. AUD/USD
      47.92% 52.08%

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

14:20CET

These are the items that have hit the wires so far in European trading and that have caused some real market action:

    * Swiss National Bank leaves rates unchanged, as expected.  If a deflation threat emerges, the SNB would take the measures necessary to ensure price stability
    * Eurogroup’s Juncker:  There is no alternative to consolidating public finances in euro zone
    * EU’s Reynder:  Confident EU summit will produce decision on very strong stability mechanism
    * Japan Strategy Minister:  Govt to decide 2011/2012 budget on December 24 (working on Christmas Eve, that sucks)
    * BOE MPC Posen:  Policy should not overact to above target inflation (standard fare from the dovish Mr Posen)
    * UK  November retail sales +0.3% m/m, +1.5% y/y vs median forecasts of +0.4%, +0.7%  respectively
    * Irish Q3 GDP +0.5% q/q, -0.5% y/y, weaker than median forecasts +0.8%, flat repectively

Probably main feature has been some swissy weakness, but it’s not huge.  USD/CHF up at .9705 from early .9660,  EUR/CHF at 1.2860 from around 1.2780. I don't like the CHF as a strong currency for the time being, but let's not be aggressive in this time of the year.

EUR/USD up marginally at 1.3245 from early 1.3220, having reached session high 1.3265 at one stage.

Asian sovereign buying lifted pairing early.  We spiked fleetingly to session high in wake of Spanish auction results.  Major wire service threw a whoopsie, putting out an incorrect bid to cover ratio on the 10 year bond result. They had 2.67, should have been 1.67.

We drifted back from the spike, but US investment bank buying (you know who) in the 1.3215/20 area has lent support.

USD/JPY down very marginally at 84.05 from early 84.25.  Last time I looked US yields were very marginally easier on the day.  Not that I check them too much.

Posted via email from MT4

SNB speaks sells-off CHF crosses

10:15CET

The SNB (Swiss National Bank) just came out with some statements on macroeconomics, and the CHF got a big spike as a result of those words. USD/CHF sold-off 50 pips and so did EUR/CHF. They seem to be recovering as I write this.

This is in a nutshell what the SNB said:

    * Concerns about stability in the euro area have led to renewed financial market tensions
    * Against this backdrop, the swiss franc has again appreciated
    * Should tensions be exacerbated, this would have detrimental effect on the swiss economy
    * If a deflation threat emerges, the SNB would take the measures necessary to ensure price stability
    * Conditional inflation forecast for 2012 and 2013 is slightly below the Septmber forecast
    * Conditional inflation report shows that there is no threat to price stability in the short-term
    * Inflation forecast showed current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon
    * Weakening of exports, in particular, points to a significant reduction in growth in the quarters ahead

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. Ready for action on EUR crosses?

09:23CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. I didn't believe much the new record low in EUR/CHF as that has proven to be a very short-lived case, for the unit has bounced around 100 pips to current 1.2850, indicating that perhaps the worst of the selling pressure is gone. I am seeing a lot of volatility/activity in EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY, and they may be the real market movers ahead of Christmas and Year-end trading. I would not dare to short any of the two right now, but in the EUR/CHF case, my position is quite bullish, and any dips you may find I'd suggest to go long with them, with a tight stop below current lows and target above 1.30. Yes, it may not sound like an intraday plan altogether, but I don't think that if the scenario prints out correct and we make pips, you'll care that much about that.

On the majors front, Cable's dip below 1.5650, and as it was expected and noted here, caused a fast sell-off which put all GBP crosses under pressure. The unit is rather steady this morning, trading around 1.5580, but I will not touch it for the time being. And neither will I touch EUR/USD, as price wise it is telling me to go long, but I'm reluctant to buy the currency, especially when the crosses might help the USD (USD/CHF and USD/JPY are good long USD vehicles for now, too). Technically speaking, going long EUR/USD around 1.3225-35, with a stop below 1.3185 may just prove to be OK.

Before finishing this post, let me show you how retail traders are positioning themselves long/short at this hour. See that GBP/USD and EUR/USD have breached parity in favor of longs, so they should feel some more pressure from here on.

Dec 16, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/CAD
      74.70% 25.30%
   2. USD/CHF
      74.23% 25.77%
   3. XAU/USD
      72.24% 27.76%
   4. USD/JPY
      71.76% 28.24%
   5. GBP/USD
      58.53% 41.47%
   6. EUR/USD
      53.69% 46.31%
   7. AUD/USD
      49.91% 50.09%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. USD bounce.

19:45CET

A good technical USD rebound on the back of the earlier comments mentioned here that the USD was getting rather oversold vs the CHF. It has been the USD/CHF surge of around 100 pips what has caused the USD to gain vs the majors, sinking the GBP (EUR/GBP higher by around 100 pips today), and causing the EUR to retrace to current 1.3260 levels, where we should see some support coming in.

There were reports earlier in the day that CBs were buying the EUR around 1.3350, but I don't think that was credible enough. Because what is credible is what the charts show, and basically, the fact that the USD got oversold vs the EUR earlier in the day (and CHF), was more important than any market rumor.

Having said that, I don't like current levels for long USD as we've covered some good ground, but that doesn't mean I don't like the USD, but rather that one has to choose levels carefully in these volatile times. I would wait for a decent retracement and the go for it, ie, 1.3320 in EUR/USD and 0.9620 in USD/CHF, going for 40-50 pips each time.

Before calling it a day, let me give you the retail traders long/short ratio on majors. Thank you for reading this blog, brought to you by offshore broker investors-europe.com.

Dec 15, 2010 20:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/CAD
      76.13% 23.87%
   2. USD/CHF
      75.77% 24.23%
   3. USD/JPY
      72.59% 27.41%
   4. XAU/USD
      70.57% 29.43%
   5. GBP/USD
      53.50% 46.50%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.64% 51.36%
   7. AUD/USD
      47.51% 52.49%

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

13:43CET

These are the items that have hit the wires and caused some market moves so far in European trading:

    * Moody’s puts Spain’s AA1 rating on review for possible downgrade
    * Spain’s EconMin: Spain’s debt rating continues to show Spain’s solvency.  Within 3 months Spain’s rating will turn positive (put that in your pipe and smoke it Moody’s)
    * UK November jobless claims -1.5K,  weaker than median forecast -3k.  ILO  jobless +35,000 in 3 months to October. Rate 7.9%, higher than median forecast of 7.7%.  Highest rate since February-April 2010
    * Merkel: Euro has proved itself to be resistant to crisis
    * UK CBI retail sales balance +56 in December vs +43 in November. Much better than median forecast of +35.  Highest since April 2002. On flip side retail sales expectations balance +35 for January, lowest since July.  Things effected by introduction of VAT increase in January

Busy morning again. Hasn’t anyone told the market Christmas is just round the corner. It’s getting silly.

Trading wise, I'm beginning to really like EUR/CHF longs here as well as USD/CHF longs on any reasonable dip. Selling EUR/USD around 1.3370-80 or 1.3420-40 looks like a good intraday plan, too. I would not touch the other pairs as it seems the major part of the action will be concentrated on the ones mentioned, so sticking with the proposed plan I feel one may get some pips.

Posted via email from MT4

EUR/CHF new historic low

11:17CET

EUR/CHF has posted a new record low as it traded below 1.2780, but my feeling is that it is going to be a short-lived move, especially as USD/CHF potential from current 0.96 level to reach parity again is high.

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. Techs in play again.

09:25CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. It is good to see the techs playing their part on most of the majors (we'll leave the USD/CHF aside for the time being), and find that yesterday's rise in EUR/USD may've just been a new bear trap to get as many longs as possible at the highest of the range. Because, if you have not noticed, we still are in a trading range, and it would be technically bad if it would be otherwise. Why? Let's take the EUR/USD as the benchmark pair here for obvious reasons. The unit broke an important support line when it traded below 1.32, but the follow-through to that break was non-existent, hence the possibility of the spikes we've seen. Fine. If the Euro would've continued yesterday's rally and threaten the 1.36-1.37 level, that would've not been OK from a technical point of view.

Cable's story is more or less the same, but in this case we have a dynamic resistance line around 1.59 that has been capping the upside, and now any break below 1.5650 could be a major trigger for shorts. Having said that, let's also watch USD/JPY, who held 82.80 important support yesterday, and it may mean better support for the USD ahead.

Adding to all of this the fact that despite yesterday's attempt, Gold finished the day below $1,395, where we have the dynamic line acting as resistance, and that the daily divergence there is still in full force, so I'm keeping shorts here, USD positive as well.

For today, I'd like to maintain my strategy of buying USD on dips, particularly USD/CHF around 0.96, short EUR/USD around 1.3350 and short Cable around 1.5810. The extreme intraday levels may be a help to that.

Before finishing this opening post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour:

Dec 15, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.43% 25.57%
   2. USD/CHF
      74.18% 25.82%
   3. USD/CAD
      70.02% 29.98%
   4. XAU/USD
      68.53% 31.47%
   5. EUR/USD
      47.18% 52.82%
   6. GBP/USD
      46.98% 53.02%
   7. AUD/USD
      44.84% 55.16%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. USD selling continues.

18:18CET

The selling of the USD continues at good speed and the Euro got close to 1.35 today amid global EUR buying across the board. USD/CHF and EUR/CHF are also good indicators of the situation, i.e., that the CHF acting as a safe-haven currency is working at the moment and is gaining ground virtually against every other currency.

Technically speaking, and despite the adverse outlook for the time being, I would stick to the tactics of buying the USD on reasonable dips, but having said that, any USD rally can be also shorted out as prices do not seem to cooperate much with the greenback at the moment. EUR/USD longs from 1.3380 or shorts from 1.3450-60 look like a good range strategy to me.

Before leaving, here's how retail traders are long/short on majors at this hour.Thanks for being there, I look forward to seeing you all again tomorrow or on twitter.com/ctainvestor for real-time tips. Brought to you by offshore firm ivestors-europe.com.
Dec 14, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.59% 25.41%
   2. USD/CHF
      72.77% 27.23%
   3. XAU/USD
      70.18% 29.82%
   4. USD/CAD
      69.03% 30.97%
   5. GBP/USD
      50.59% 49.41%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.33% 51.67%
   7. AUD/USD
      43.56% 56.44%

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

13:47CET

These are the items that have hit the wires and have had a market impact thus far in the European session:

    * ECB’s Trichet: We are calling for maximum flexibility, capacity for euro zone’s EFSF rescue fund
    * ZEW December German economic sentiment index 4.3 vs 11.8 in November, slightly better than median forecast of 4.0
    * German govt official: We will ensure the euro will remain stable in the long-term
    * S&P: If Belgium fails to form new govt soon, a downgrade could occur, potentially within 6 months
    * Swiss govt raises 2011 Swiss GDP forecast to 1.5% from previous forecast of 1.2%. Sees growth of 1.9% in 2012
    * China ForMin: N.Korea agreed with China envoy on need to show “restraint”, promote “denuclearisation”
    * French November EU harmonised CPI +0.1% m/m, +1.8% y/y, as expected
    * Austrian ForMin: EU colleagues “concerned” about euro – Austria press agency
    * UK Nov CPI +0.4% m/m, +3.3% y/y, marginally firmer than median forecasts +0.3%, +3.2% respectively. Highest y/y rate since May

On a market note:

Asian sovereigns bought early setting the tone for the day.  Stops were tripped through 1.3440 and 1.3475 on way to 1.3498.  S&P warning of a possible Belgium downground has slightly deflated the rally.

Cable effectively unchanged on day at 1.5860. Did manage an early rally which topped out at 1.5910.  A UK clearer was a extremely aggressive seller of the GBP/AUD cross this morning and this weighed on cable and sterling in general.  The GBP/AUD cross is down at 1.5845 from an early 1.5940.

USD/JPY down at 82.95 from early 83.45 having been as low as 82.85.   A large hedge fund was a very notable seller of the cross today, apparently liquidating their long position.

More stops now seen through 82.80 but also buy orders clustered at 82.75.

AUD/USD up at 1.0010 from early .9950.  The actions of the UK clearer gave the pairing a good boost.  Australian corporates were also notable buyers today.

Posted via email from MT4

Weekly Analysis Report (prepared for Investors-Europe.com) Dec.14 2010

11:32CET

The new chapter of my longer-term piece of analysis, prepared for broker investors-europe.com is now available at the following link. Hope you find it useful.

http://www.investors-europe.com/content/analysis/74/index.html

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. USD under pressure.

09:47CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Like yesterday, the USD has started the day under some pressure (although less than what we saw yesterday)and has posted new intraday lows vs the Europeans, although, as I said, nothing dramatic at the moment.

Honestly, the idea to short the USD, particularly vs the CHF, at/around these levels is of little attractive to me. In fact, I would definitely suggest, as sent via Twitter (ctainvestor) to all the followers, to long USD/CHF @ current rate around 0.9645, put a stop clearly below 0.9625, and target for a bounce above 0.97.

It is the Swissy the most interesting major cross for the time being, at least this is what I think. I would like to think otherwise, and get ready for USD short positions, but prices have not retraced as I wanted them to overnight, and they look rather expensive to me even to initiate an intraday trade.

EUR/USD above 1.3420 or Cable above 1.5870 are simply not levels where I will short the USD, let alone initiate a positional trade. Therefore, I will stick to my plan for today and try to trade fast contras on USD/CHF, trying to get as low and around 0.9630-40 as possible, looking for a modest spike where I can unload the trades.

To conclude this opening post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour long/short:

Dec 14, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      72.72% 27.28%
   2. XAU/USD
      71.34% 28.66%
   3. USD/CHF
      70.71% 29.29%
   4. USD/CAD
      67.41% 32.59%
   5. EUR/USD
      49.51% 50.49%
   6. GBP/USD
      47.48% 52.52%
   7. AUD/USD
      46.35% 53.65%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. Heavy USD selling.

18:30CET

Well, choosing the title for this closing post hasn't been much difficult, as we are in the middle of a fast USD selling across the board, with the early indications given by the AUD/USD when it broke above 0.99 quickly followed by EUR/USD, gaining over 200 pips in the day from 1.32 to 1.34, and Cable, passing the 1.5850 mark with ease.

However, this looks to me like 'too much too fast', as we have the units way overbought (OB) on an intraday basis and we should definitely should see some corrections if there has to be a healthy move in prospect. I think that if anyone is trying to short the USD, should wait for at least 40-50 pip retracements from here or else get exposed to a tricky entry level, as current levels are not attractive to do so.

More so, I'd take a long USD/CHF here @ 0.9675, stop 0.9645 and I would go for a new test above 0.97 (this has been sent in real time through twitter), I am not in any way fond of the currencies making further progress vs the USD today, or at least if they do so, to do it in a very modest fashion.

Before closing, let's take a look @ long/short retail rations in FX. That's it from me, Tony Juste, for today. I look forward to your company tomorrow here @ CTAinvestor.com, a site brought to you by www.investors-europe.com.

Dec 13, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      73.50% 26.50%
   2. USD/CHF
      72.06% 27.94%
   3. USD/CAD
      71.04% 28.96%
   4. XAU/USD
      71.00% 29.00%
   5. AUD/USD
      45.69% 54.31%
   6. GBP/USD
      44.89% 55.11%
   7. EUR/USD
      42.23% 57.77%

Posted via email from MT4

Trade Idea: Buy GBP/USD @ market 1.5735, stop 1.5715 target 1.5775

14:29 CET

We are seeing a clear double base in Cable which may target the high-end of today's range if confirmed, so we're taking the long position with stop on a break of the range as indicated.

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

14:04CET

These are the items that have hit the wires and have had some impact on the FX markets thus far:

    * Reuters poll of 26 economists:  Slim majority expect China to raise interest rates before end of year. Poll taken over past 3 days.
    * Moody’s maintains negative outlook for Spanish banks
    * Luxembourg ForMin Asselborn: We have a euro crisis and must deal with it jointly
    * German govt spokesman: Chancellor is convinced must act now to ensure stable euro
    * Banks putting economic recovery at risk – Bank of England warns

EUR/USD up at 1.3265 from early 1.3195.  Talk had Asian sovereign buy orders down at 1.3170/80 and decent sell orders at 1.3220/30 and these parameters proved durable for a large part of the morning session.  Finally with US treasury yields coming lower EUR/USD took off. Stops were tripped through 1.3240 on way to session high 1.3278.

USD/JPY is little changed on day, presently at 84.00.  Hedge fund buying was noticeable early and we got as high as 84.36.  An Asian sovereign came in selling above 83.30 and as US treasury yields came off so the pairing slipped back

Posted via email from MT4

Extreme levels for the day

11:05CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3273 - extreme OS 1.3103
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5897 - extreme OS 1.5695
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.569 - extreme OS 83.598
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9897 - extreme OS 0.9734
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9925 - extreme OS 0.9775

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. Looking for a trigger.

09:47CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. After a few days of direct-USD market, we may have the crosses playing a bigger role and impact on FX prices from now on. I am basically referring to the EUR crosses, who have been lethargic for the last couple of weeks approximately, but that could have their say in the markets from this point on.

On the majors technical picture, the USD is having an easy time at the moment, as it is not being put under serious pressure by the Europeans, and even it is making some good progress vs the GBP. Important to highlight the fact that the daily trendline break in Cable last week (around 1.5790), did have a minor follow-through (as the unit spiked to 1.5860 in Friday), but failed to materialize and hold onto those gains and now threatens with a possible break lower. Indeed, if the unit moves back below 1.5740, some fireworks could be seen there. We have tested the level already, but is coinciding with the extreme OS level intraday, so I'm expecting a bit of a bounce here.

As for the Europeans, the Euro has some resistance around 1.3250 and the Swissy some good support around 0.9765, so let's see it for some fast contra trades if those levels are reached.

Before concluding this opening post, here is the long/short retail positioning ratios for the major FX pairs + gold.

Long/Short ratio Dec 13, 2010 10:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      71.64% 28.36%
   2. USD/CHF
      71.01% 28.99%
   3. XAU/USD
      70.40% 29.60%
   4. USD/CAD
      70.14% 29.86%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.46% 49.54%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.38% 51.62%
   7. GBP/USD
      41.96% 58.04%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. I'll keep it on Gold shorts for now.

18:22CET

It's been a rather dull day in the FX arena, although we've seen some good USD selling across the board that have helped the situation stabilize quite a bit. EUR/USD has printed a 1.3150 high, along with the other majors spiking vs the USD. The only relative surprise has been Cable, who threatened the static 1.5650 support earlier on the day on very good PMI data, but then ran out of steam and it is trading well below the level at the moment.

For my own trading, I have 2 key positions at the moment: long EUR/GBP off sub-0.84 levels and Short Gold from $1,380. I believe these 2 are the best positions to be held for December -on a non-intraday basis, of course-. I believe that we have to wait a little bit to get again good technical levels to trade ourselves into when it comes to the majors, as we are more or less in no man's land at present.

I'm finishing the day with the usual long/short ratio on the retail side, which is very much meaningless at this point, with the 3 important majors hovering around parity, now above, now below it...I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my bit of space on the internet, presented by www.investors-europe.com offshore broker. I'll catch up with you again tomorrow. Follow my updates on Twitter if you want real-time tips.

Dec 1, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.41% 24.59%
   2. XAU/USD
      68.94% 31.06%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.10% 31.90%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.66% 37.34%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.54% 47.46%
   6. EUR/USD
      50.11% 49.89%
   7. GBP/USD
      49.84% 50.16%

Posted via email from MT4

Interesting link

16:30CET

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting comparison between various European economies and US states in terms of there GDP.

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. EUR recovery across the board.

09:33CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Nice technical EUR recovery across the board, pretty much what I was expecting for yesterday (you know, for Tuesday being a usually USD-selling day, enough of that rule of thumb, anyway...), but glad to see it today. EUR/USD has climbed past 1.3065, and if that level holds, we may have a good follow-through in the pair, perhaps not in size, but in time, where we would see the current savaging of the unit being halted for longer than just one day. EUR/CHF nice bounce and EUR/JPY very good rally have supported the unit as well, with USD/CHF breaking all resistances and making a new high, I wonder for how long as it is creating a new divergence in the 4hr charts, which I'll report when confirmed.

In other arenas, Gold made a push over $1,395, but it was a very brief trip as the unit is now trading around $1,385.I have to say that the possibility of a H&S with a neckline @ $1,340-45 is still completely valid, therefore, and as long as we remian below $1,415, I suggest shorting this unit, as I believe we will see a very sharp correction there.

For today, I?m looking towards good retracements to buy the Europeans vs the USD, and keep an eye on EUR/GBP, as it seems to have found a good base @ 0.8340 and might be just ready to take off.

To conclude this opening post, find below the long/short retail ratio. What definitely surprises me is the change in GBP/USD to over 52% longs, as well as EUR longs rise, precisely when the unit is recovering, so keep that % in mind.

Dec 1, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.36% 23.64%
   2. USD/CHF
      69.24% 30.76%
   3. XAU/USD
      68.10% 31.90%
   4. USD/CAD
      59.37% 40.63%
   5. GBP/USD
      52.18% 47.82%
   6. AUD/USD
      51.60% 48.40%
   7. EUR/USD
      50.68% 49.32%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. Big volatility to end the month....and more to come.

18:19CET

Well, it's all about selling the EUR to the catacombs these days and today it was no exception. The only difference was that, instead of direct EUR/USD selling, we had EUR selling through the crosses, and particularly (and this is definitely not technically welcome), through a huge EUR/CHF sell-off, from 1.3130 to 1.2930 in just a session, reminding us that this once so-called lethargic pair is the king of volatility at present and a driving force in the markets.

Nothing big to add from the technical point of view, I would repeat the extreme OS status of the single currency, but then you would label me as a broken record and I would not like that. Interesting to see whether the USD/JPY sell-off is a one-day event or a more sustained situation, but anyway in the mid 83's I think it's pretty good to buy the pair. Also, keep a big eye on USD/CHF, as the unit pretends to regain parity, and a move above 1.0020 would mean the break of the short-term resistance line off the recent highs.

Before calling it a day, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves in the market, I still am amazed at EUR and GBP ratios (USD/CHF and USD/JPY are an X-file these weeks, too). I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my bit of space on the internet, supported and presented by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 30, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.38% 23.62%
   2. XAU/USD
      68.95% 31.05%
   3. USD/CHF
      67.30% 32.70%
   4. USD/CAD
      57.24% 42.76%
   5. AUD/USD
      51.79% 48.21%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.02% 51.98%
   7. GBP/USD
      47.64% 52.36%

Posted via email from MT4

Vivian Lewis Says It?s All About the Dollar

14:51CET

The Renaissance woman of the international investment newsletter scene gives a wide ranging interview on Hedge Fund Radio. Bullish on the US dollar, despite the vast majority of traders happily positioning for the decline and fall of Uncle Buck. It’s simply a matter of betting on the simultaneous strengthening of the US economy and a slowdown in Europe. Cautious on Brazil, but Chile, Poland, Thailand, and India look hot. The Yuan can only go up. Searching for value in Greece. (EWZ) (UUP), (EUO), (PT), (EWZ), (TF), (PLND), (ECH), (PIN), (FXI), (GIFD), (PCY),

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/vivian-lewis-says-it%E2%80%99s-all-about-dollar

Posted via email from MT4

Bundesbank planning on a world without the euro?

14:27CET

Things are getting out of hand in the Euro-Zone...We heard rumors like this back in the spring as well…

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10933330/1/germany-is-smart-to-plan-for-death-of-euro.html

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

13:28CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and causing some kind of market action:

    * China says “extremely important and urgent” to encourage talks on Korean situation
    * China state councillor Dai Bingguo to visit North Korea – Kyodo
    * Rumour: German Landesbanks having problems with access to liquidity
    * Rumour: France to be put on negative watch by S&P
    * Rumour: US bank has put out note saying “Portugal is insolvent”
    * French Budget Minister Barion: No risk of France credit rating being downgraded
    * ECB buys 5 year Irish bonds (and probably other pheriphery bonds)
    * Spain’s EconMin Campa: Elevated financing cost will be worrying if it lasts
    * Spain banks face funding hurdle amid bailout threat – Bloomberg

Technically speaking, the EUR continues to be smashed across the board, and has a new front of battling: the JPY-CHF connection. The unit is getting very oversold (OS) vs the USD in almost all timeframes, and likewise vs the CHF, the situation is getting unsustainable with the so-called single currency. But even funnier is the long/short positioning by retail traders, who must again be making huge loads of money as it keeps being NET SHORT in EUR/USD.................unbelievable.

Nov 30, 2010 13:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.04% 23.96%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.23% 30.77%
   3. USD/CHF
      66.58% 33.42%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.42% 37.58%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.22% 49.78%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.79% 52.21%
   7. GBP/USD
      45.70% 54.30%

Posted via email from MT4

Extreme levels for the day

11:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3243 - extreme OS 1.2947 - we are not far from it
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5656 - extreme OS 1.5440
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.702 - extreme OS 83.625
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0089 - extreme OS 0.9904
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9733 - extreme OS 0.9490

Posted via email from MT4

Economic Data for Today

09:30CET

11:00 - EUR - Unemployment rate **
14:30 - CAD - GDP ****
15:45 - USD - Chicago PMI **
16:00 - USD - Consumer Confidence ***
16:30 - EUR - ECB President speaks ***
21:00 - USD - Fed Chairman speaks ***
01:30 - AUD - GDP ****

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market reaction will be, 1* lowest volatility.

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. CHF may be the bigger threat to EUR and USD.

09:26CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. In other market circumstances, I'd start by reminding you that Tuesdays are usually USD-selling (mild or aggressive) days, but I find it prudent, and more taking into account what happened last Tuesday, not to do so. However, the main topic so far this morning isn't the EUR or USD: it's the CHF. The unit, who as I repeatedly said was forming many negative divergences in USD/CHF, has finally obliged and is pushing all pairs lower, dictating the market pace, and making the other crosses look rather irrelevant at this point. Well, I'm starting to hear and read that it is because of the fragile situation of the stock markets and bla bla bla, but the true fact is that charts where pointing to a lower USD/CHF, and that's what we have now. Whether this CHF brake on the USD advance will have any further impact on other USD crosses is something I don't know for sure yet.

On the other fronts, the day starts more or less where we left it, but I'm sure that there will be some more action from here, which I will try to describe in real time through twitter and ctainvestor. EUR/USD is threatening the 1.31 mark again as the single currency keeps being pressured on all fronts at the moment, although technically speaking is forming some kind of a possible support pattern, we'll see. THe JPY is also higher this morning, as a result of the CHF strength, but also as a result of the many resistances found around 84.20-50, which, if not broken, may send all the crosses way lower. We have EUR/JPY below 110 as I write this opening post, a bit surprising technically, to be honest.

Finishing this opening post with the retail long/short ratio for your review. As you see, it's just amazing to see EUR/USD longs below parity, something I still don't get...

Nov 30, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.26% 23.74%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.57% 30.43%
   3. USD/CHF
      67.29% 32.71%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.57% 37.43%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.76% 49.24%
   6. EUR/USD
      49.27% 50.73%
   7. GBP/USD
      45.78% 54.22%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. Capitulation (part II and no comment...).

17:52CET

A very disappointing start of the week, from a technical point of view. It has become a very rare case now that 2 out of the last 3 trading days have seen a currency capitulation in just one direction. In the current almost historical case (when analyzed from the point of view of my extreme OB/OS readings), we have seen a new wave of very aggressive EUR/USD selling, which, in the other hand, has not led to a big raise of longs by retail traders, which I simply cannot believe, as it means most of them are making tons of money under these conditions, and I simply refuse to accept that.

The trip towards the 50% Fibo of the big 1.18-1.42 move (1.3080) may be considered by some of you as a technical move, but the speed with which the event has taken place is by no means technical or rational. The Euro accumulates aberration levels or technical failures from the low 1.32's now, and it's easy to see that the market is taking little care to correct that, at least for the time being. I would anyway be wary of new shorts, although most of the sites are calling for a EUR/USD destruction, and perhaps it will be them having the last laugh this time, I don't know.

The technical ideas suggested today worked nothing as the market dictated a different rule today, i.e, it abandoned any technical rationality to become a one-way traffic jam, making it easy for the mass media to play their snake charmer's role they long to do when something smells of a crisis or similar. Anyway I refuse to accept that these snake charmers will succeed in making of the market a non-technical environment from now on...

Before calling it a day, find below the long/short retail ratio, and you probably will shake your heads as much I do as there is something wrong there. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my site on the web, sponsored by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 29, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.89% 24.11%
   2. USD/CHF
      69.97% 30.03%
   3. XAU/USD
      68.89% 31.11%
   4. USD/CAD
      59.14% 40.86%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.93% 47.07%
   6. EUR/USD
      51.52% 48.48%
   7. GBP/USD
      46.65% 53.35%

Posted via email from MT4

EUR/USD second capitulation in three days

... As unit does not move from extreme OS levels intraday and threatens to break the 1.31 mark.

Posted via email from MT4

The nature of the euro has fundamentally changed

14:23CET

Interesting text by Jamie Coleman @ ForexLive.com, which is copied in full below.

In the early days of the sovereign debt crisis, the thinking was that bailouts, if necessary, would be punitive to keep other nations from following suit.

Now, bailouts have become  institutionalized, part of the European landscape. Terms are longer and easier to manage. Pretty soon, there will be no stigma to being bailed out by the EU and IMF at all. What stigma will there be to being the fourth bailout recipient, especially if you can spread the pain of repayment over ten years (or more, quite likely,  if that becomes too onerous…)

Whatever hope the market may have had of the euro being a deutsche mark substitute was shattered over the weekend when Europe put in place a permanent bailout mechanism, rescheduled the Greek bailout package and added Ireland to the dole.

The euro will continue to exist but it will not be considered hard money in the future. It is instead every German’s nightmare…

RIP the Germanic Euro: 1999-2010.

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

13:48CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and causing most of the market moves this morning.

    * German FinMin Schaeuble: Programme for Ireland is appropriate
    * German FinMin Schaeuble: Expects a new Irish govt would also feel obliged to accept deal. Not all details on Ireland package.
    * Roubini: Portugal likely to need bailout
    * Introducing the European Stability Mechanism  -  ft.com/aplphaville
    * Germany faces its awful choice as Spain wobbles – AEP in The Telegraph
    * UK October mortgage approvals 47,185, in line with median forecast of 47,000
    * Euro zone November business climate 0.96, weaker than median forecast of 1.05

Technically speaking, the advance of the USD has put the unit again very much stretched vs the EUR, where we see extreme OS levels in 15m charts being tested non-stop, and that is not a healthy sign for the greenback. Of course, the crowd is now selling all EUR crosses as they were selling all USD pairs shortly ago, so no surprise from the crowd mentality point of view. However, I disagree that current EUR weakness is to last at this ratio of speed. Buying EUR/USD @ 1.3145 with 1.3120 stop and 1.3210 target looks good to me.

Posted via email from MT4

TRADE IDEA: BUY EUR/USD here @ market 1.3185, stop 1.3155, target 1.3245

Posted via email from MT4

Investors-Europe.com Weekly Newsletter

10:44CET

As usual on Mondays, you can see my in-depth FX and World markets analysis and mid-term scenario predictions on Investors Europe. Follow the link below to access it:

http://www.investors-europe.com/content/analysis/74/index.html

Posted via email from MT4

Did you know...?

10:20CET

The popularity of the VIX index, which has become a widely watched barometer of investor fear since the financial crisis, is generating a host of spinoffs, copycats and derivatives. It's adding up to big business for VIX's owner, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, as well as partners and competitors that have developed products pegged to, or inspired by, the VIX.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/fear-gauges-are-big-business/story-e6frg90x-1225962587199

Posted via email from MT4

Extreme levels for the day

10:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3374 - extreme OS 1.3111
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5714 - extreme OS 1.5495
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.527 - extreme OS 83.565
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0085 - extreme OS 0.9944
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9761 - extreme OS 0.9532

Posted via email from MT4

A different view on Ireland

10:04CET

Interesting piece on the Irish crisis:

The alternative title for today entry is: Ireland, please drive a stake through the heart of the vampire banks which have the world by the throat. The entire controlled demolition of the Eurozone's finances can be summed up in one phrase: privatize leverage and profits, socialize losses and risk. The basic deal is this: protect the bank's managers, shareholders and bondholders from any losses, while heaping the socialized losses and risks on the taxpayers and citizens. While there are murmurings of "forcing bondholders to share the pain," any future haircut will undoubtedly be just for show, while the Irish pension funds are gutted to bail out the banks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-ireland-please-do-world-favor-and-default

Posted via email from MT4

DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

09:45CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3350 1.3410 1.3260
EURUSD BUY 1.3180 1.3140 1.3250
GBP/USD SELL 1.5650 1.5710 1.5470
GBP/USD BUY 1.5570 1.5510 1.5650
USD/JPY BUY 83.60 82.90 84.30
USD/JPY SELL 84.20 85.00 82.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9950 0.9920 1.0030
USD/CHF SELL 1.0025 1.0075 0.9930

Posted via email from MT4

Economic Data for Today

09:45CET

10:30 - GBP - Net Lending to Individuals **
16:30 - GBP - Government Autumn Statement **
01:01 - GBP - Gfk Consumer Confidence **

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on my expected market reaction to it, 1* lowest volatility.

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. Reversal in place?

09:25CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The end of the week brought fast and furious gains for the USD, who threatened to break major lines vs the majors, for example, 1.0050 vs CHF, 1.3185-90 vs EUR and 1.5585 vs GBP. Today we had a repetition of such threats as the Dollar progressed even beyond those limits in a very volatile overnight session, but those gains quickly evaporated as technicals ruled and so now we have an easier situation for the majors from a technical point of view, although some of them still not out of the woods yet. Important to highlight the fact that AUD hit sub-0.96 levels, printing our mid-term target rather fast, just to see things reversing in line with the other majors.

I do feel we've seen quite a lot of improvement by the USD, but the speed with which this has taken place suggests we are in need of a pause, and although Mondays are not traditionally the days where the USD sees losses, the initial comeback by the majors suggests that we may be in for a price reversal, or at least no more USD gains for the time being. Selling USD rallies is the preferred strategy for today.

Before concluding this opening post, here's the long/short % positioning by retail traders at retail brokerages at this hour.

Nov 29, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.49% 25.51%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.94% 30.06%
   3. USD/CHF
      69.57% 30.43%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.14% 38.86%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.24% 47.76%
   6. EUR/USD
      51.38% 48.62%
   7. GBP/USD
      47.81% 52.19%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close.Thanksgiving sleep.

17:55CET

A non-market today that served the EUR to gain vs the USD close to 1.34, profiting from non-existent volatility and even so less liquidity. The unit looks now better than yesterday, but selling strength into the 1.34's looks like a good strategy to me. USD/CHF ran above 1.0 again, but the bearish technical signals paid off and our short strategy for the day paid decent pips despite the tight ranges. Very little less that I can add at this point, as I have no real interest in GBP or AUD at these levels, and USD/JPY is above a magnet line when it should be below, so nothing interesting happening there as well. A point to note, EUR/JPY is trading @ 111.80 after the capitulation 2 days ago, and I feel we will see the 112 mark soon again.

Before calling it a day, please find below the long/short retail ratio @ brokerages. Note that EUR longs keep increasing, which should put more pressure on the unit rather soon again. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my blog, sponsored by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 25, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.10% 25.90%
   2. XAU/USD
      71.28% 28.72%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.90% 31.10%
   4. USD/CAD
      66.70% 33.30%
   5. EUR/USD
      53.01% 46.99%
   6. AUD/USD
      49.75% 50.25%
   7. GBP/USD
      47.56% 52.44%

Posted via email from MT4

Why Thick Mick From Ireland is a thing of the past

http://read.bi/thickmick

 

......

 

News Brought to you By:

investorseurope
745 Europort
Gibraltar GX11 1AA
T  +350 200 40303
F  +350 200 51795
@mt4offshore
Investors Europe, a Gibraltar stock, futures and forex broker regulated by the Financial Services Commission. Read our disclaimers on spot forex, on the diffusion of third party products, news, services and U.S. Persons U.S. Persons  http://www.investorseurope.com/disclaimer.html 

Forex Brokerage: http://bit.ly/11zOCb DEMO : http://bit.ly/aH8o80

Stock Brokerage: http://bit.ly/6QycRq DEMO : http://bit.ly/cRLSbs 

Futures Brokers: http://bit.ly/pQxYq   DEMO: http://bit.ly/9hRCsK
Gibraltar Stock Broker : http://bit.ly/gibraltarfeed 

Posted via email from MT4

TRADE IDEA: SELL USD/CHF @ market 1.0010, stop 1.0030, target 0.9975

Sent via Twitter.com/ctainvestor ... Open an account with www.investors-europe.com and benefit from CTAinvestor.com tips right away!

Posted via email from MT4

Thought-Provoking video

09:20CET

Interesting video to watch on the successive effects of QE in the US.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-dollar-died

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. The gold direction.

09:10CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The US Thanksgiving break usually reduces volumes and makes trading ranges rather tight; however, and particularly in the FX case, since it is London the place that dominates volumes, it has not proven to be so. After the EUR capitulation of two days ago, things seem to have eased down at first. There is one instrument though that can set the pace for the next USD move: Gold.

The unit is forming a very clear H&S pattern, and the latest dip sub $1,370 puts it back below the key support line it has been trying to regain for the last 4-6 trading days. The neckline of this move is found around $1,325-15, and a clear break of the level exposes a fast selloff towards $1,250 at least, which would make things look rather bright for the USD.

In the currency front, very little to add, except that AUD/USD, given its recent strength, is the best vehicle for going long USD at the moment, with the 0.96 target discussed earlier in this blog still valid.

To conclude this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Note that all 3 majors EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are now in majority of LONGS, which makes USD progress far more easy than before, hope the USD/CHF will turn the tide as well soon.

Nov 25, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      73.04% 26.96%
   2. XAU/USD
      71.14% 28.86%
   3. USD/CHF
      68.38% 31.62%
   4. USD/CAD
      66.86% 33.14%
   5. EUR/USD
      53.50% 46.50%
   6. AUD/USD
      50.27% 49.73%
   7. GBP/USD
      50.24% 49.76%

Posted via email from MT4

The irony of long-term chart reading

18:34CET

I was just going through the long-term charts, i.e, weeklies, and just realized USD/JPY confirmed a bullish singal at the close of last week @ 83.50....ironic, isn't it? Today's capitulation by the JPY crosses, and particularly EUR/JPY was not on cards surely on those longer-term chart readings...anyway, this is the FX market.

Posted via email from MT4

The End Of The Dollar Carry Trade? Presenting The Dollar Short Panic In A Burning Theater

17:57CET

Very interesting piece in ZeroHedge.com

After it became fashionable to say one was short the dollar at cocktail parties, the net result was a surge in CFTC-reported spec USD gross short positions and a plunge in net USD exposure. And since options traders are nothing but momentum chasing lemmings the theater is now fully on fire. Granted, while some of the recent spike in short interest has been covered, there are still just over a whopping 7.5k contract shorts that need to be covered before a reversion to the recent trendline. This is why we are currently seeing a massive unwind in the dollar short carry trade, and why once again rumors that macro funds are slowly and quietly receiving billions in margin calls behind the scenes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/end-dollar-carry-trade-presenting-dollar-short-panic-burning-theater

Posted via email from MT4

TRADE IDEA: BUY EUR/JPY here @ extreme OS level 112.65 15m chart, stop 112.35, target 113.10

Posted via email from MT4

European FX Midday recap

12:50CET

These are the items that have been hitting the wires and that have had some impact in the financial and FX markets thus far this European morning:

    * Artillery shells fired by North Korea hit South Korean island, fatalities
    * S.Korea says it was conducting military drill in area before North Korea firing.  Says conducted test firing before exchange at island.
    * German FinMin Schaeble: Joint currency is at stake
    * Euro zone  manufacturing PMI 55.5, stronger than median forecast of 54.4
    * EU, ECB, IMF: Greece agreed new measures to broaden tax base, cut health sector and state firm waste
    * IMFmission chief for Greece: Athens broadly on track on fiscal plan
    * Greece’s main labour union calls for pan-european anti-austerity strike in 2011 – Union spokesman
    * Portugal opposition lawmaker says to allow passage of 2011 budget
    * German Q3 GDP (final) +0.7% q/q, +3.9% y/y, as expected
    * Irish c.bank governor: Not certain all of bailout package will be drawn down. There will a lot of conditions attached to the bailout
    * Bank of Spain’s Ordonez: Economy will take time to create jobs, recovery will be soft
    * Bank of Spain’s Ordonez: Spain’s deficit cutting plans more serious than some other countries
    * Italy November consumer confidence 108.5, stronger than median forecast of 107.5
    * French November manufacturing industry business morale 100, weaker than median forecast of 102
    * UK October mortgage approvals for home purchase 30,766, down from 31,058 in September, lowest since March 2009
    * ECB’s Tumpel-Gugerell: Money market conditions in euro zone are improving

Technically speaking, EUR is under heavy pressure as it can't even regain the 1,3585-90 level, a thing that also is confirmed by the failure by Gold to breach back above the dynamic resistance line @ $1,365, which is putting a real cap on AUD/USD. I favor selling this unit @ 0.9825-30 (we've been there 2-3 times today), targeting 0.9780 at least for today and stop above 0.9875. So far this is not a usual Tuesday.

Posted via email from MT4

DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

11:15CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3620 1.3650 1.3520
EURUSD BUY 1.3520 1.3490 1.3580
GBP/USD SELL 1.5970 1.6030 1.5870
USD/JPY BUY 83.10 82.40 83.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9870 0.9830 0.9970
USD/CHF SELL 0.9925 0.9965 0.9870

Posted via email from MT4

How Germany could come to kill the euro

11:12 CET

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85b62490-f66e-11df-846a-00144feab49a.html#axzz165QI9Cmg

Posted via email from MT4

Extreme levels for the day

10:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3730 - extreme OS 1.3464
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6048 - extreme OS 1.5829
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.877 - extreme OS 82.935
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9977 - extreme OS 0.9812
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9967 - extreme OS 0.9741

Posted via email from MT4

Economic Data for Today

09:23CET

09:30 - EUR - German Services and Manufacturing PMI **
10:30 - GBP - BBA Mortgage approvals ***
13:00 - EUR - GFK Consumer Climate ***
15:30 - GBP - BoE's MPC member speaks ***
16:00 - USD - Existing Home Sales ***
20:00 - USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes ****

Data is valued 1* to 5* depending on what I expect the market will do with it, 1* lowest volatility.

Posted via email from MT4

At the Open. Usual Tuesday ahead? Not likely...

09:15CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Heavy losses for AUD and EUR at the start of the day, particularly at a time when one would've least expected them to happen, i.e, at a time when Gold is again up for the day (although it has not broken the dynamic resistance line @ $1,365, from where I recommend shorts), and GBP is not 'falling' that much. The USD remains the favorite currency these days, and we've even seen new short-term highs in USD/JPY, as the unit printed 83.70 overnight. The EUR/CHF crash has put some brakes to the general USD/CHF advance, but overall the picture looks quite clear for the greenback.

On dailies, the reversal pattern seen yesterday in EUR/USD is not only targeting 1.3435 again, it is leading us to believe that the 61.8% of the last upleg, situated @ 1.3260, might just print sooner rather than later, and that's a fact. We have the unit with some positive divergences at this hour and it is Tuesday, so in other occasions I would've just issued a buy recommendation; not this time. Blame it on Ireland (that's the new game now...) or whatever you want, but even on a clear long call like the one I'm seeing on the screens at the moment I will not go with it, and rather sell rallies....even on a Tuesday.

Before closing this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour on brokerages. Long/Short ratio provided below. As you can see, short AUD/USD is the best thing to do for now, and the 0.96 target remains in place.

Nov 23, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.21% 24.79%
   2. XAU/USD
      74.12% 25.88%
   3. USD/CHF
      70.91% 29.09%
   4. USD/CAD
      61.54% 38.46%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.30% 47.70%
   6. EUR/USD
      47.17% 52.83%
   7. GBP/USD
      43.21% 56.79%

Posted via email from MT4

At the Close. Violent USD reaction....fishy.

18:05CET

Well, it turned out to be more than just a classic Monday, with the USD making very strong gains vs the EUR, pushing it beyond extreme OS territory in 15m charts, and hitting OS territory in 1hr chart, in what I call it a 'too much, too fast' move, which does not leave a good taste as I write this closing post.

That, coupled with the fact that the Aussie and Cable are still holding respective support lines (short-term), makes the EUR move a rather unique situation, which can be attributed to Ireland or whatever you want to use as an excuse, but that technically puts the USD in a complicated situation, and I definitely do not recommend any EUR/USD shorts unless we hit the high 1.36's again, else the situation is risky.

The Swissy broke its short term resistance line @ 0.9915, and had a minor follow-through, but the EUR/CHF crash made it not move as high as one would've expected. Let's pay attention to that 0.99 level in this pair, for a new losing of it might spar a new round of USD selling, which, as you know, and for the sake of a healthy move, I would more than welcome.

As you can see in the retail positioning below, AUD longs have increased (good for shorting the pair, I still aim @ 0.96 mid-term on that one, so shorting and keeping a full stop above 1.02 with that target in mind is recommended for mid-term players -only-), but still Euro and Cable longs are the minority, which makes today's moves even more fishy, so do not overexpose yourselves with USD longs from here.

Also very interesting to know that Gold failed again to break back above the broken support line off $1,150 (a dynamic resistance line that was coming today @ $1,363), and we saw the unit fall $20 after that, confirming that $1,315 should be next, forming that H&S pattern along the way and targeting $1,220 mid-term (very bearish on this unit I am!).

That's it for today, long/short retail ratio from brokerages below. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, and remember, being with investors-europe.com will give you the chance to have my intraday trading ideas for free.

Nov 22, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.62% 25.38%
   2. XAU/USD
      73.29% 26.71%
   3. USD/CHF
      71.39% 28.61%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.37% 37.63%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.75% 47.25%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.53% 51.47%
   7. GBP/USD
      44.22% 55.78%

Posted via email from MT4