At the Close. Violent USD reaction....fishy.

18:05CET

Well, it turned out to be more than just a classic Monday, with the USD making very strong gains vs the EUR, pushing it beyond extreme OS territory in 15m charts, and hitting OS territory in 1hr chart, in what I call it a 'too much, too fast' move, which does not leave a good taste as I write this closing post.

That, coupled with the fact that the Aussie and Cable are still holding respective support lines (short-term), makes the EUR move a rather unique situation, which can be attributed to Ireland or whatever you want to use as an excuse, but that technically puts the USD in a complicated situation, and I definitely do not recommend any EUR/USD shorts unless we hit the high 1.36's again, else the situation is risky.

The Swissy broke its short term resistance line @ 0.9915, and had a minor follow-through, but the EUR/CHF crash made it not move as high as one would've expected. Let's pay attention to that 0.99 level in this pair, for a new losing of it might spar a new round of USD selling, which, as you know, and for the sake of a healthy move, I would more than welcome.

As you can see in the retail positioning below, AUD longs have increased (good for shorting the pair, I still aim @ 0.96 mid-term on that one, so shorting and keeping a full stop above 1.02 with that target in mind is recommended for mid-term players -only-), but still Euro and Cable longs are the minority, which makes today's moves even more fishy, so do not overexpose yourselves with USD longs from here.

Also very interesting to know that Gold failed again to break back above the broken support line off $1,150 (a dynamic resistance line that was coming today @ $1,363), and we saw the unit fall $20 after that, confirming that $1,315 should be next, forming that H&S pattern along the way and targeting $1,220 mid-term (very bearish on this unit I am!).

That's it for today, long/short retail ratio from brokerages below. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, and remember, being with investors-europe.com will give you the chance to have my intraday trading ideas for free.

Nov 22, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      74.62% 25.38%
   2. XAU/USD
      73.29% 26.71%
   3. USD/CHF
      71.39% 28.61%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.37% 37.63%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.75% 47.25%
   6. EUR/USD
      48.53% 51.47%
   7. GBP/USD
      44.22% 55.78%

Posted via email from MT4