At the Open. CHF may be the bigger threat to EUR and USD.

09:26CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. In other market circumstances, I'd start by reminding you that Tuesdays are usually USD-selling (mild or aggressive) days, but I find it prudent, and more taking into account what happened last Tuesday, not to do so. However, the main topic so far this morning isn't the EUR or USD: it's the CHF. The unit, who as I repeatedly said was forming many negative divergences in USD/CHF, has finally obliged and is pushing all pairs lower, dictating the market pace, and making the other crosses look rather irrelevant at this point. Well, I'm starting to hear and read that it is because of the fragile situation of the stock markets and bla bla bla, but the true fact is that charts where pointing to a lower USD/CHF, and that's what we have now. Whether this CHF brake on the USD advance will have any further impact on other USD crosses is something I don't know for sure yet.

On the other fronts, the day starts more or less where we left it, but I'm sure that there will be some more action from here, which I will try to describe in real time through twitter and ctainvestor. EUR/USD is threatening the 1.31 mark again as the single currency keeps being pressured on all fronts at the moment, although technically speaking is forming some kind of a possible support pattern, we'll see. THe JPY is also higher this morning, as a result of the CHF strength, but also as a result of the many resistances found around 84.20-50, which, if not broken, may send all the crosses way lower. We have EUR/JPY below 110 as I write this opening post, a bit surprising technically, to be honest.

Finishing this opening post with the retail long/short ratio for your review. As you see, it's just amazing to see EUR/USD longs below parity, something I still don't get...

Nov 30, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      76.26% 23.74%
   2. XAU/USD
      69.57% 30.43%
   3. USD/CHF
      67.29% 32.71%
   4. USD/CAD
      62.57% 37.43%
   5. AUD/USD
      50.76% 49.24%
   6. EUR/USD
      49.27% 50.73%
   7. GBP/USD
      45.78% 54.22%

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