Wednesday, November 3, 2010

At the Close. The typical FOMC shake-up.

21:05CET

In what it can only be described as the usual up-down-and-around following the FOMC rate decision and statement, the USD has failed to capitalize on the good initial reaction, where we saw EUR/USD down to 1.40, Gold tanking to 1,328 and AUD/USD down to 0.9900, just to reverse course by over 100 pips at the time of this writing, AUD new record highs on print, and Gold @ 1,347, while GBP/USD is lacking some steam and just above 1.61 barely.

It is interesting to note that the QE2 plan is far lighter than initially anticipated, as ZeroHedge reports:

"FOMC Announcement: $600 Billion, $75 Billion/Month, $110 Billion Including QE Lite, 35% SOMA Limit Removed, $27.5 Billion Weekly POMO, On Run Rate To Monetize Entire Budget Deficit",

but let's remember that $600Bln is far less than the 1-2Tln expected by the market. Therefore, I can only say that the current market action responds more to a final shake up of any USD long remaining outhere, to make everyone believe the USD is doomed, confirm the daily triggers in 2-3 days (perhaps Friday is the day now), and then turn things for good. I would refrain from calling for a new sustained downleg in USD from here, and will remain to do no matter the price action that follows. I do still believe 1.30 has more odds to print than 1.45-50 in EUR/USD benchmark.

Below you'll find how retail positioning is doing at this hour, no real change at this point...I'm Tony Juste, look forward to your company tomorrow. Goodnight.

Nov 3, 2010 21:00 GMT+0100
READING %LONG / %SHORT

   1. AUD/USD
      40.44% 59.56%
   2. EUR/CHF
      58.68% 41.32%
   3. EUR/GBP
      47.11% 52.89%
   4. EUR/JPY
      56.58% 43.42%
   5. EUR/USD
      39.45% 60.55%
   6. GBP/JPY
      65.50% 34.50%
   7. GBP/USD
      42.50% 57.50%
   8. USD/CAD
      65.59% 34.41%
   9. USD/CHF
      71.78% 28.22%
  10. USD/JPY
      80.33% 19.67%

Posted via email from MT4

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