09:25CET
Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. It is good to see the techs playing their part on most of the majors (we'll leave the USD/CHF aside for the time being), and find that yesterday's rise in EUR/USD may've just been a new bear trap to get as many longs as possible at the highest of the range. Because, if you have not noticed, we still are in a trading range, and it would be technically bad if it would be otherwise. Why? Let's take the EUR/USD as the benchmark pair here for obvious reasons. The unit broke an important support line when it traded below 1.32, but the follow-through to that break was non-existent, hence the possibility of the spikes we've seen. Fine. If the Euro would've continued yesterday's rally and threaten the 1.36-1.37 level, that would've not been OK from a technical point of view. Cable's story is more or less the same, but in this case we have a dynamic resistance line around 1.59 that has been capping the upside, and now any break below 1.5650 could be a major trigger for shorts. Having said that, let's also watch USD/JPY, who held 82.80 important support yesterday, and it may mean better support for the USD ahead. Adding to all of this the fact that despite yesterday's attempt, Gold finished the day below $1,395, where we have the dynamic line acting as resistance, and that the daily divergence there is still in full force, so I'm keeping shorts here, USD positive as well. For today, I'd like to maintain my strategy of buying USD on dips, particularly USD/CHF around 0.96, short EUR/USD around 1.3350 and short Cable around 1.5810. The extreme intraday levels may be a help to that. Before finishing this opening post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour: Dec 15, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100 1. USD/JPY74.43% 25.57%
2. USD/CHF
74.18% 25.82%
3. USD/CAD
70.02% 29.98%
4. XAU/USD
68.53% 31.47%
5. EUR/USD
47.18% 52.82%
6. GBP/USD
46.98% 53.02%
7. AUD/USD
44.84% 55.16%
Posted via email from MT4
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